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Cryptocurrency analyst PlanB, creator of the Stock-to-Flow model for Bitcoin (BTC), has reiterated his forecast that BTC will average $500,000 during the current halving cycle, which runs from 2024 to 2028. The prediction is being made as Bitcoin trades with ongoing volatility and struggles to reclaim the $70,000 level. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was priced at $67,334, down almost 1% over the past 24 hours, while up 0.6% on the weekly timeframe.
The Stock-to-Flow framework evaluates Bitcoin’s value by measuring scarcity: it compares the existing supply (stock) to the rate of new issuance (flow). Halving events, which occur every four years, reduce mining rewards and progressively increase this ratio. PlanB said this dynamic has historically aligned with significant price gains in previous cycles.
For the 2024–2028 period, PlanB’s analysis projects a wide range of $250,000 to $1 million, with $500,000 positioned as the midpoint average. He also pointed to the model’s performance in the 2020–2024 cycle, when it projected an average near $55,000 versus an eventual actual figure around $34,000, which he said remains within an acceptable variance.
PlanB argued that the model continues to be directionally effective across multiple cycles, even when short-term price movements deviate. His assessment also references indicators including the 200-week moving average, realized price, and the Stock-to-Flow projection for 2024–2028. He further described overlaying the current price with RSI coloring to reflect momentum, suggesting potential upside if historical patterns persist.
He emphasized that the model is designed to focus on cycle averages rather than exact market peaks or troughs, and he framed current levels as potentially consistent with a buying window for investors aligned with a long-term scarcity thesis.
PlanB’s bullish outlook comes as Bitcoin remains volatile following a pullback from recent highs near $74,000 earlier in the week. The article attributes the increased volatility to broader market pressures, including geopolitical tensions in the Middle East affecting risk sentiment, as well as fluctuations in ETF inflows and outflows.
Despite the decline, Bitcoin is described as consolidating after a rally that pushed it above $72,000 in early March. Some analysts cited in the article view the current trading range as a potential accumulation zone ahead of a further move.
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