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Agriseco analysts say accelerating the disbursement of public investment is expected to create spillover effects across multiple sectors, including construction materials, infrastructure construction, electrical installation, real estate and logistics. The plan projects total public investment capital for 2026–2030 at about 8.22 quadrillion dong, around 2.7 times the 2021–2025 period and the highest level on record.
For 2026, total planned public investment capital is about 995 trillion dong, up more than 30% versus 2025 actual. If additional capital is included, the total is about 1,008.61 trillion dong, equivalent to 7.85% of nominal 2025 GDP.
In its latest report, Agriseco Securities (Agriseco Research) notes that amid a volatile global economy, Middle East conflicts and US countervailing tariffs on Vietnam, the results of public investment disbursement are particularly important for growth. The General Statistics Office calculations cited by Agriseco indicate that a 1% increase in public investment disbursement could raise GDP by about 0.058 percentage points.
Agriseco expects that accelerating disbursement—together with improving progress and decisive policy implementation—will be a key foundation for achieving 10% GDP growth in 2026. The brokerage also expects the acceleration to benefit sectors tied to construction and energy infrastructure.
Agriseco expects construction materials to see positive effects soon after land clearance, as projects move into construction and toward completion. In steel, steel producers and suppliers to infrastructure projects are expected to benefit from rising demand. For cement and construction stone—where transport costs matter—firms located close to projects with large market shares are expected to gain a competitive advantage.
The report highlights that the stone construction industry is expected to grow due to rising demand amid landfill shortages at major projects, including the North–South Expressway, Long Thành airport and railways. Agriseco therefore expects leading stone companies with large reserves near key projects to benefit.
On margins, Agriseco notes that for steel firms, input costs (iron ore and coke) are rising, but steel prices and domestic demand are expected to rebound faster due to public investment disbursement and improving domestic real estate, helping margins remain supported.
For construction stone, margins could be maintained due to higher selling prices amid tight supply. For cement, earnings and margins are expected to remain challenging in 2026 due to higher coal prices (World Bank forecast), with the market under supply pressure even as demand improves.
Agriseco also flags potential margin pressure for asphalt in 2026, citing a 30% increase in PVC input material costs since the start of the year, alongside higher borrowing costs and freight charges.
In addition to materials, Agriseco expects infrastructure construction to benefit directly from major public investment projects. The projects listed include the North–South Expressway, North–South rail, Long Thành airport, Gia Bình, Belt 3 of Ho Chi Minh City, Belt 4 (Hanoi area), Trống Đồng Stadium and Can Gio.
Agriseco expects new contract values to rise, which could help firms expand backlog and maintain stable cash flow going forward, particularly for large and experienced contractors. However, margins may be affected by rising input material costs, as materials account for 65–70% of total construction costs.
The electricity infrastructure installation group—such as substations and transmission lines—is expected to benefit directly as the government promotes energy infrastructure to ensure energy security. Agriseco links this to momentum for growth, including projects such as 500kV lines, renewable energy, LNG-fired plants and hydropower.
The report expects the electrical installation group to benefit the most due to higher anticipated workload as electricity demand increases, especially in industrial zones and production hubs.
Agriseco says real estate may receive indirect support from accelerated public investment. Residential real estate is expected to benefit indirectly through improved infrastructure that increases land values and stimulates housing demand in surrounding areas, including Hai Phong, Hung Yen, Quang Ninh, Ho Chi Minh City, Binh Duong, Dong Nai and Ba Ria–Vung Tau.
However, the report notes the sector remains under pressure from interest rates, bonds, liquidity and market confidence. Industrial real estate is described as having more positive prospects due to better transport infrastructure, improved connectivity and the ability to attract more foreign direct investment (FDI).
With FDI rising into Vietnam and policies supporting strategic industrial park projects, Agriseco expects firms with land ready to lease, established customers and solid financial capacity to benefit.
Agriseco expects logistics to benefit indirectly as public investment accelerates and infrastructure improves. It says completed highways will ease logistics operations and support growth and foreign investment.
The port and airport sectors are expected to benefit early from large projects including Long Thành International Airport, Tan Son Nhat airport, Noi Bai expansion, Lach Huyen port, Cai Mep–Thi Vai and the Can Gio international transshipment port.
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