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Main indices have advanced for several consecutive sessions and have moved beyond key resistance levels. However, near-term profit-taking pressure is increasing, raising the risk of volatility and choppiness in the coming sessions.
The VN-Index logged its fourth consecutive week of recovery from April 13–17, supported by signs that global geopolitical tensions are cooling. Investor sentiment improved as cash flow strengthened, with buying concentrated mainly in large-cap stocks, helping the index repeatedly break through and surpass important resistance levels.
Despite the recovery, foreign investors remain a key downside factor for market sentiment. Over the past five sessions, foreign investors net sold 4,689 billion VND across the market.
Analysts said the market could see a pullback after the recent rally. While daily-chart indicators remain positive—suggesting buyers still control the near-term trend—intraday signals point to rising profit-taking pressure.
Market breadth also suggests investors’ participation has not fully kept pace with the index’s gains. The VN-Index surpassed 1,800 points, approaching 1,850, but only about one-third of stocks are trading above the 200-day moving average.
VCBS expects the market may experience “whipsaws” and choppiness as it tests demand. The nearest support level to watch is around 1,801 points, corresponding to the MA20.
According to Nguyen Duc Khang, Head of Equity Analysis at Pinetree Securities, the VN-Index closed the week with positive performance as it advanced through 1,800 points, driven by gains in VIC and MWG. However, cash-flow behavior does not yet clearly confirm the market can continue higher immediately. He said a short-term correction is likely, with Doji candles appearing on intraday charts—often interpreted as signs of indecision and meaningful profit-taking pressure.
Tran Quoc Toan, Director of Branch 2 at Mirae Asset Sekurity (MAS), said the VN-Index still retains upside momentum and could move higher. Still, after a strong and relatively decisive advance, near-term profit-taking is difficult to avoid. He expects alternating volatility during the week, particularly at higher price ranges, and noted that the week ahead is the last trading week before the holiday, which may encourage consolidation.
Even with the risk of short-term pullbacks, liquidity remains high, providing a base for the market. Dragon Capital also pointed to stability in Vietnam’s macroeconomic backdrop, with industrial activity continuing to support growth.
Dragon Capital cited industrial production (IIP) growth of 9.0% year-on-year in Q1, with manufacturing up 9.7%. In March, IIP rose 18.8% month-on-month and 6.9% year-on-year.
Business conditions expanded, with PMI at 51.2 points (down from 54.3 in February), indicating normalization from a higher base and signs of demand weakness. The expansion broadened across sectors, including metals (+22.9%), non-metallic minerals (+19.7%), and chemicals (+18.2%).
Domestic demand also remained positive. Retail and services revenue rose 12.1% year-on-year in March and 10.9% in Q1, reaching about $72.3 billion. Accommodation and food services increased 13.3% year-on-year, while tourism-related services rose 12.5%, supported by seasonality and travel recovery.
Toan said this supports profitability potential for consumer-oriented sectors and reinforces consumption as an increasingly important pillar for economic growth. He added that a mild correction—if it occurs—would not necessarily be negative, as it could help “refresh” capital and allow the market to accumulate internal strength for longer-term goals.
In a market described as highly differentiated, Toan argued that investors should focus on quality stocks and remain patient with the mid-term trend. He advised investors to prioritize stocks with solid fundamentals rather than chasing FOMO after prices have moved far from safe entry levels. He also said a concentrated portfolio approach may help optimize results in the current environment.
On liquidity and sector rotation, MAS expects rotation to continue among three main groups:
For short-term trading, ASEAN Se cautioned that investors holding substantial cash can deploy gradually during pullbacks, prioritizing stocks moving in uptrends in sectors such as real estate, banking, securities, and retail–consumer.
For buy-and-hold investors with longer horizons, ASEAN Se recommended focusing on leading stocks while maintaining growth prospects for 2026.
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