Sabeco targets profit growth; Habeco cuts profit expectations for 2026

Sabeco has outlined plans for profit growth in 2026, while Habeco has set more conservative targets, signaling a cautious view of the operating environment ahead. Habeco also reported a positive finish for 2025, but its 2026 outlook implies a significant step down in both revenue and after-tax profit versus the prior year.

Habeco: 2026 targets imply sharp profit decline

In documents released ahead of its annual general meeting, Habeco set 2026 revenue at 7,799.6 billion VND and after-tax profit at 212.6 billion VND. These figures represent declines of about 10% in revenue and 56.7% in after-tax profit compared with 2025 actual results.

Habeco reported that it closed 2025 with revenue above 8,540 billion VND and after-tax profit of about 491.4 billion VND, up 25.6% year over year.

Key assumptions and operating focus

The company’s plan emphasizes operational adjustments to align with a planned increase in special consumption tax from 2027 to 2031. It also highlights ongoing industry-wide pressures from input costs, exchange rates, interest rates, oil prices, and logistics.

Sabeco: 2026 revenue and profit growth, dividend at 50%

Sabeco’s AGM proposal targets 2026 revenue of 28,959 billion VND, up 12% from the previous year. It also projects after-tax profit of 4,937 billion VND, up 8%, and proposes a dividend payout policy of 50%.

2025 performance: revenue missed targets, profit grew

Sabeco’s 2025 results did not meet full-year targets. Revenue was 25,888 billion VND, down 19% year over year and the lowest in four years. After-tax profit, however, reached 4,573 billion VND, up 1.7%, helped mainly by an improvement in profit margin to 35.9%.

Outlook and market factors

For 2026, DSC analysts expect Sabeco’s performance to improve, supported by seasonality around Tet and positive effects from major sports events including the World Cup, Champions League, and Asiad 2026. The recovery is expected to be moderate, with single-digit revenue growth, amid continued regulatory pressure on alcohol content.

Sabeco’s leadership also noted that while Vietnam’s beer market remains a major beverage sector in Southeast Asia, competition is intensifying as consumer preferences shift—particularly among younger consumers seeking new experiences, premium products, and online shopping channels.

Policy pressures: excise tax increases from 2027

The plans assume excise tax changes that begin in 2027. For beer and spirits, the excise tax is assumed to increase by 5% annually from 2027 to 2031. For sugar-sweetened beverages, the excise tax is assumed to rise from 8% in 2027 to 10% from 2028 for products exceeding the sugar limit.