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Semiconductor stocks are posting an unusually long run of gains. The PHLX Semiconductor Index and the Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXQ), which tracks the index, have risen for 17 consecutive trading days. The streak runs from March 31 to April 23 and is the longest sequence of up days in the index’s 32-year history.
By comparison, the SOX index has recorded a nine-plus day winning streak only a limited number of times: a nine-plus day streak has occurred just nine times, a 10-plus day streak has happened five times, and only one streak longer than 11 days has been logged—a 15-day streak in 2014.
The rally is notable not only for its length, but also for its strength. Historically, longer winning streaks over the past three decades have typically been associated with gains of roughly 8% to 10%. The current streak has delivered more than 40%—a level that is far above prior extended runs.
Data source: Yahoo Finance.
The article also examined historical semiconductor-sector streaks of at least nine straight up days. Using the streak end date, forward-looking returns were calculated for the subsequent one-, three-, six-, and 12-month periods to gauge whether a pullback typically follows and whether longer-term upside tends to persist.
Average across the historical streaks (where forward returns are available): 1M +3.4%, 3M +8.4%, 6M +13.1%, 12M +28.1%
Data source: Yahoo Finance.
Across the historical instances, semiconductor stocks posted additional gains in seven out of eight cases for each of the one-month, three-month, and six-month forward windows. The article notes that the signal appears strongest in the three- to six-month range, where returns were more consistent across the sample.
For the 12-month window, the average forward return was about 28%, but results varied widely. The article attributes the higher average to unusually large gains in 2016 (+56%) and 1994 (+120%), while also noting that there were two double-digit losing periods. The median 12-month return was cited as 15.6%, suggesting that the average figure needs context.
While the sample size is small and outcomes vary significantly, the historical pattern described in the article indicates that long semiconductor winning streaks have often been followed by further gains over the subsequent three to 12 months. With the current 17-day run and a 40%+ gain, the article characterizes the move as “uncharted territory,” but suggests that the upside may not be fully exhausted—highlighting an 87% success rate of positive returns over the next three- and six-month periods as a key benchmark.
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