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Shell PLC and BP PLC shares rose 0.9% and 0.5% after crude oil prices surged to their highest levels since the US and Israel opened war on Iran. Brent crude front-month futures jumped from $110 on Wednesday to above $126 a barrel in the early hours of Thursday, before easing slightly to $122.
The move followed reports suggesting the US was planning to extend the blockade on Iran and was considering escalation. Overnight, Axios reported that President Trump is set to receive a new briefing on potential plans for further military action, describing a “short and powerful” wave of strikes intended to break the negotiating deadlock.
Trump also posted that “Iran can’t get their act together. They don’t know how to sign a nonnuclear deal. They better get smart soon!”
Macro analysts at Deutsche Bank said the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the risk of further escalation have increased fears of an extended stagflationary shock. They added that the impact is already visible in sovereign bond markets.
Deutsche Bank also noted that investors are pricing in a more protracted conflict. Longer-dated oil futures have moved to their highest levels of the conflict, with the 6-month Brent future at $91.49 a barrel this morning. The article said the 6-month contract has not previously closed above $90 during the conflict.
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