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Bitcoin rallied to as high as $74,050 on Wednesday, 04 March, but it fell back below the $70,000 support level within the past 24 hours of trading. The move suggested that aggressive selling pressure—what previously drove BTC to $60,000 in February—has cooled somewhat, though a broader market recovery has not yet taken hold.
AMBCrypto reported that the Bull Score Index was near 10, indicating weak market sentiment. The Coinbase Premium Index, which had moved into positive territory in recent days, also reverted to negative territory. Together, the indicators suggested limited conviction behind the rally, raising the possibility that the current retracement could extend further.
In a post on X, crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr said selling pressure from long-term holders could be increasing again. Long-term holders are defined as Bitcoin holders that have not moved their supply for at least 155 days. Despite a 46% price drawdown since October, long-term holders remained profitable on average.
At the time of writing, long-term holders’ average cost basis was $39.8k. The analysis argued that a major price drop toward this level remains likely later in 2026.
Expectations for the next one to two months included continued high volatility. The 30-day MVRV ratio reached local highs, showing that 30-day holders were, on average, nearly 8% in profits. With that setup, profit-taking was described as reasonable.
The 90-day and 180-day MVRV ratios were highlighted as more relevant, with similarities to the December–January pattern. In that earlier period, the 30-day MVRV repeatedly entered small profit margins, the 90-day holders moved into profit during mid-January, and a strong retracement followed after Bitcoin fell to $60k.
Based on those parallels, the analysis suggested Bitcoin could surge toward $83,000 and even $89,000 to hunt short liquidations and encourage bullishness before falling lower again. Traders were advised to monitor the 90-day MVRV metric for further confirmation.
Another analyst, Darkfost, noted that short-term holders (BTC aged 155 days or younger) had sent 27.5k BTC to exchanges in profit. This profit-taking selling pressure was cited as a likely factor behind the price drop below $70k. The amount of short-term holder BTC sent to exchanges at a profit was also described as among the highest seen in recent weeks.
The analysis added that fear and uncertainty in the coming days could push prices below $68,000.
Bitcoin’s loss of the $70,000 support level reflected selling pressure from both long-term and short-term holders. Short-term holders’ realized price was cited at $68,000, and a bullish reaction from that area was described as possible over the next few days.
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