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Two retail stocks are expected to open higher, supported by a strong IPO narrative and attractive valuations, according to SSI Research deputy director Dao Minh Chau. In a segment of Coffee with Stocks, he outlined an optimistic outlook for Vietnam’s retail sector in 2026.
Mr. Chau said retail and consumer sectors remain a key pillar, accounting for more than 60% of GDP. He noted that the sector is likely to benefit from government growth targets and supportive policies, including VAT reductions and changes to personal income tax.
He added that the government is targeting double-digit GDP growth and expects GDP per capita to reach around USD 8,000 by 2030. “To achieve that, besides public investment or real estate, consumption will be an important driver and will continue to receive policy support,” the analyst said.
The analyst also pointed to an “asset effect” from the recovery in real estate prices in major cities such as Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City over the past two years. This has improved the middle class’ sense of wealth and supported growth in material spending.
A key factor highlighted by SSI Research is the competition for market share. Listed retailers mainly operate in the modern retail channel and continue to gain share from traditional channels.
Mr. Chau said tightening of invoicing, business-licensing controls, and anti-counterfeiting efforts have favored larger, more organized players.
While overall consumer growth across the market has not yet returned to pre-COVID levels, many listed retailers have posted strong Q1 results. SSI Research cited MWG, FRT, PNJ, and DGW, which reported revenue growth of 30–50% and profits up more than 70%, exceeding prior expectations.
SSI Research also flagged risks from inflation. April’s CPI rose to 4.55%. Sustained inflation could reduce real purchasing power and discretionary income, particularly for non-essential goods.
In addition, a higher interest-rate environment can pressure consumer loans and mortgages, encouraging households to save more. Despite this, retailers are viewed as more resilient due to direct-to-consumer models, which can help pass input-cost increases through to prices and protect margins.
In the current context, SSI Research favors MWG (The Gioi Di Dong) and MSN (Masan) due to the IPO stories of subsidiaries and what it considers attractive valuations.
SSI Research said MWG benefits from the electronics replacement cycle as AI-enabled laptops and new generations of smartphones enter the market.
It also highlighted the expansion plan for the Bach Hoa Xanh chain: the company is pushing to open 800 new stores in 2025 and 1,000 stores in 2026. With this scale, SSI Research expects the chain’s net margin to rise from about 0.3% to above 3%.
Future IPOs of Dien May Xanh and Bach Hoa Xanh are also viewed as important catalysts for enterprise value.
For MSN, SSI Research cited growth momentum from expanding the WinCommerce network by 20–30% this year.
It added that MSN also benefits from the rally in tungsten prices and a rebound in the consumer segment (MCH). Similar to MWG, the WinCommerce IPO is identified as a positive factor supporting the stock price.
SSI Research noted that FPT Retail (FRT) continues to rely on the Long Chau pharmacy chain, which contributes about 90% of profits and aims to expand another 20% of stores. However, SSI Research said FRT’s current valuation is higher than MWG and MSN.
For PNJ, SSI Research said it benefits from rising gold prices and opportunities to gain market share as policies to curb smuggling tighten.
On profitability, SSI Research believes the explosive Q1 growth may not be sustainable, but a 20–30% growth rate in subsequent quarters remains feasible.
It also said forward P/E for listed retailers is below the five-year average, implying potential upside of more than 20% to the target price SSI Research provides.
Despite a positive long-term outlook, the analyst cautioned short-term investors to remain prudent. After an exceptionally strong Q1, growth in coming quarters may slow due to high year-on-year bases and more visible inflation and higher rates.
In a market with limited information support and some volatility, SSI Research suggested that waiting for more compelling discounts before deploying funds could support safer portfolio positioning. Retail remains a top area of interest, but it requires patience and a long-term view to capture remaining growth potential for the year.
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