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The sharp price declines seen today under intense selling pressure were linked to hostilities escalating over the weekend. Early reactions typically tend to be strong, giving initial sellers an advantage until liquidity is sufficient to absorb the selling and market sentiment stabilizes.
Trading today unfolded in two main waves. The first began immediately after the market opened, when many stocks fell sharply. About 180 stocks declined by more than 3%, which may reflect early margin pressure or early exits.
The second wave arrived after the midday break. As some participants took advantage of the rebound to sell at better prices, U.S. and European stock futures were also described as beginning to reflect a more substantive reality.
While the morning session showed price support, the afternoon sell-off had two notable features. First, prices declined again significantly, with some stocks setting new intraday lows. Second, liquidity fell sharply versus the morning session, with HSX down about 28% and overall HNX down 29%. This points to funds retreating, leaving cash-rich holders in a stronger position to choose whether to sell or hold.
In this context, the focus is on the way and scale of selling rather than the pace of buying. A decisive and strong counterattack by buyers would be a positive development.
Total traded value on the two listed exchanges today was about 46.8 trillion VND, alongside roughly 1.55 billion shares traded (excluding negotiated deals). The article characterizes this turnover as very high and suggests that shareholders showed more fear, while cash holders had more flexibility.
It also notes that the very high liquidity can include short-term position-reduction trading—selling and re-buying at lower levels rather than fully exiting a portfolio. This type of activity is typically aimed at reducing portfolio risk if the market deteriorates and/or capturing small profits. Short-term sector rotation speculation was also described as visible, particularly where money flowed into stocks that benefit from oil prices, with dozens of stocks hitting the ceiling—rare during sessions when the VN-Index falls sharply.
The derivatives market was described as offering a “golden opportunity” due to very high swings. Right after the open, VN30 fell toward the expected maximum near 2014.xx. F1 accepted basis +6, 7 points, while pillars including VIC, VHM and several banks reportedly saw thick buying interest. Despite a significantly negative basis, the article suggests a potential for a move large enough to offset it, with a mid-sized long position and a stop loss set at half the basis from entry price.
In the last 30 minutes of the morning session, the basis turned negative again, approaching 10 points, which was interpreted as consistent with long-covering or the start of new short positions.
In the afternoon, the down-move was described as harder to trade because VN30 hovered between 2040.xx and 2051.xx in the first half. With the basis narrow, the article suggests waiting until VN30 breaches 2040.xx before shorting, citing a clear cut-off level.
With selling pressure rising again toward the end of the session and demand weakening, the article states it is highly likely the market will fall further in the morning. It emphasizes that capital inflows remain decisive: if liquidity stays extremely high, the stock supply may eventually be absorbed. An estimated 5% adjustment range in stocks could then be gradually recovered, and derivatives Long/Short is described as remaining flexible.
VN30 closed today at 2010.75. Nearest resistance levels tomorrow are 2014; 2025; 2030; 2040; 2052; 2061; and 2071. Support is cited at 1995; 1981; 1970; 1962; and 1950.
Blog note: “Blog chứng khoán” is personal commentary and does not represent the views of VnEconomy. The opinions and assessments are those of individual investors, and VnEconomy respects the authors’ views and writing style. VnEconomy and the author are not responsible for issues arising from the assessments and investment opinions posted.
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