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A round of selling in VIC and VHM appeared as expected today and had an impact on the VN-Index, but the notable difference was that other blue chips held up fairly well. Overall, the market continued to show differentiation rather than being driven by sentiment.
The ability to differentiate was the most positive signal today, especially as liquidity indicators suggested a slowdown. This helps confirm that the current supply-demand dynamics are short-term in scale rather than large.
HOSE traded around 20.5 trillion dong excluding negotiated deals, down 9% from yesterday. Meanwhile, VN30 rose slightly more than 1%. Liquidity declined in the mid-cap and small-cap groups, which are dominated by retail investors and short-term speculators.
Profit-taking had already appeared for three sessions, opposite to the VN-Index’s rise. Today, supply and demand were temporarily balanced, allowing a differentiated state to emerge.
The VN-Index was pulled down mainly by VHM, down 5.17%, while VIC fell only 0.74%. VHM failed at its previous high, whereas VIC appeared to form a bull trap: its price jumped 5.65% before reversing.
The amplitude of the moves for both stocks was strong in this swing, so volatility is not unusual. However, there is a non-trivial probability of a correction or at least a pullback to consolidate.
The best-case scenario is for these two leaders to stabilize, or for losses to be mitigated through rotation into other large-cap stocks. For example, many banking stocks recovered well today. If not, the VN-Index is likely to undergo a meaningful correction.
Concerns for the rest of the market center on short-term supply-demand balance for other stocks. Many rebound-style stocks are not as strong as the index or are far from the leading names, so any correction would likely be limited. In addition, liquidity during the recovery phase remains limited, which helps curb sharp volatility.
Overall, the context shows no major negative surprises in the near term, supporting a sense of short-term safety. Caution remains, particularly because a market driven by headlines is harder to predict. The possibility of increased military pressure to force a result at the negotiating table still exists, and the outcome of the current negotiation round is described as crucial.
In the derivatives market, the risk premium priced in for declines in VIC and VHM was evident. As the session opened with both leaders rising sharply in the early minutes, F1 priced in a discount of 25–26 points. During subsequent dips in VIC and VHM, the discount widened to more than 11 points, making short positions difficult.
When VN30 rebounds to around 1997.xx, the basis sits at -17 points, creating a Long setup with a stop-out if VN30 retreats below 1997. In this phase, VN30 rose only modestly to around 2007.xx, while F1 gained more than 10 points. The session later saw VN30 oscillate between 1997.xx and 2007.xx, but the basis was difficult to trade.
With liquidity signals slowing and blue chips differentiating, short-term opportunities are described as less plentiful than before, making stock picking harder. The guidance provided is to prefer T+ trading and close positions promptly, while derivatives Long/Short strategies should be flexible depending on the basis.
VN30 closed today at 1988.11.
Nearest resistance levels for the next session are: 1997; 2010; 2015; 2027; 2040; 2048; 2061.
Support levels are: 1982; 1972; 1962; 1950; 1935.
The “Stock Blog” is a personal piece and does not represent VnEconomy’s views. The opinions and assessments are those of the individual investor, and VnEconomy respects the author’s views and style; VnEconomy and the author are not responsible for issues arising from the published assessments and investment opinions.
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