Stock market shows divergence as money flows shift to mid-cap and penny stocks

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VNI fell today, but trading conditions were not bad. Market activity showed clear dispersion, with money flowing into penny and mid-cap stocks, suggesting small retail investors have become noticeably calmer.

There was also a visible shift away from recently hot stocks. Oil and fertilizer names were among the most evident areas of rotation. BSR surged the most in the oil and gas group, helped by upstream advantages, but then tested a peak and saw large-scale selling. GAS, PLX, and PVD appeared to be forming bull-traps on the way down. Notably, selling in oil and gas continued even as world oil prices remained high.

Blue-chip weakness, liquidity shift

The blue-chip group underperformed overall, though only VCB and GAS stood out among the leaders. Differences existed across names such as VJC, VNM, MSN, and SAB, but they were not enough to sustain the index.

Liquidity in VN30 declined sharply, accounting for just over 48% of the HSX floor—the lowest share in six months. Meanwhile, mid-cap and penny stocks remained active and helped offset the overall liquidity shortfall caused by selling in blue chips.

Liquidity increased in mid-caps as trading concentrated in oil, chemical, and fertilizer stocks. Many stocks rose sharply on the back of solid liquidity in these two groups, particularly mid-sized to small property developers such as VCG, NVL, TCH, DXG, PDR, and KDH, which traded heavily (over hundreds of billions).

Risk sentiment improves as fear fades

This money-flow shift is viewed as positive overall. It not only creates dispersion of opportunities but also signals improved risk tolerance. Individual retail investors typically focus on mid-sized or small-cap names with moderate liquidity, and many of these stocks have fallen sharply—at times to levels seen during short-term downturns following the April–May tax shock last year.

While falling prices can tempt greed, the article notes that greed does not always follow. A few days earlier, prices had fallen even lower than today, yet investors still stayed away—because fear had overtaken greed. The return of active, positive trading flow is therefore interpreted as a sign that fear has faded.

Index performance and near-term outlook

VNI dropped 0.78% today and posted a second consecutive down day, making the recent T+ rebound feel more like a technical bounce. The chance of further downside remains, but the article suggests individual stocks are more likely to start differentiating positively.

With weakness in blue chips, VNI may face another decline toward stronger support levels. However, stocks are not expected to fall uniformly as before. The key difference today is improved risk sentiment compared with earlier periods, with trading activity calmer despite ongoing macro uncertainty.

Derivatives: basis favored Long, then trading became harder

The derivatives market moved strongly today and was easier to trade than yesterday, as the basis was favorable. The first VN30 drop tested 1844.xx before rebounding. The basis initially favored Long after F1 rejected and accepted a basis discount of over 10 points, but the subsequent rally in VN30 narrowed the gap.

VN30 rose to 1868.xx, and Long-cover strengthened and widened the basis. The bounce from 1858.xx to 1872.xx was nearly negligible, making stop-loss and take-profit levels easier to identify.

In the afternoon, VN30 encountered several resistance levels, setting up for Short. However, rebounds were wide, triggering many stop orders. The late decline after 2 PM came with a wide discount, making it harder to trade.