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Whenever the world enters a cycle of policy shifts, such as the current period in Vietnam where deposit and lending rates are rising again after a long stretch of low levels, asset markets tend to react accordingly.
In recent weeks, investors have pointed to a “volatile market” across multiple asset classes—from sharp swings on stock trading boards to gold prices moving up and down, alongside uncertainty in oil. The result has been a sense of instability, with markets exhibiting more unpredictable movements than usual since the start of 2026.
In the stock market, the VN-Index has recorded sessions down by more than 100 points, described as one of the deepest declines in history, weighing on investor sentiment.
Other markets have shown similar volatility. Global gold rose to over $5,172 per ounce before falling and then rising again, indicating that even traditional safe-haven assets are not moving steadily. Oil prices also surpassed $100 per barrel amid Middle East tensions, increasing concerns about inflation returning. At the same time, domestic interest rates in Vietnam have edged up since the start of 2026.
One cited cause is a turning global monetary policy cycle in which major economies are not moving in sync. The U.S. Federal Reserve began a rate-cutting cycle in 2025, with three consecutive cuts of 25 basis points each, bringing rates to 3.50%–3.75% by the end of 2025.
Meanwhile, the European Central Bank stopped easing and kept rates high as Eurozone inflation remains around 2.4%. The Bank of Japan, for the first time in more than a decade, exited ultra-loose policy and raised rates to 0.75%.
According to the analysis presented, when major economies diverge in policy direction, global capital can become more sensitive, and developments in the Middle East can amplify sharp moves across stocks, gold, and oil.
Earlier U.S. tariff packages were also cited as a factor that disrupted global trade. The IMF said these tariffs dragged global growth forecasts down to 3.1% in 2026. The U.S. Federal Reserve has also warned that new tariff packages carry uncertain impacts and could raise inflation again.
Moody’s and Deloitte reports were referenced as indicating that Middle East tensions pushed oil above $100 per barrel at times and helped keep it above that level for extended periods. In addition, shifts in supply chains as the U.S., China, and the EU adjust policies are expected to gradually increase logistics costs, inputs, and global commodity prices.
All of these factors could have a measurable impact on Vietnam, given the country’s highly open economy.
Despite the intensity of current fluctuations, Ms. Lục Kim Thanh, Director of the Digital Business Division at Kafi Securities, said that market history suggests this type of volatility is not unusual. She noted that whenever the world enters a policy-shift cycle—such as the current period with Vietnam’s deposit and lending rates rising again after a long phase of low levels—asset markets typically react accordingly.
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