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Galaxy Digital’s Alex Thorn has predicted that MicroStrategy will surpass Satoshi Nakamoto’s Bitcoin holdings within two years. On Polymarket, Bitcoin reaching $200,000 by December 31, 2026 is priced at 4.9% YES.
MicroStrategy currently holds 815,061 BTC, making it the largest corporate Bitcoin holder. In the Polymarket market focused on 2026 outcomes, the $200,000 year-end target carries a 4.9% probability.
In the short term, sentiment is more bullish. For April 26, all sub-markets are at 99.9% YES for Bitcoin being above $68,000, with two days until resolution. The $67,380 move required to shift the market by five percentage points suggests traders are showing strong conviction on the near-term price floor.
The longer-dated $200,000 market trades about $505 per day in actual USDC, described as a thin order book where relatively small orders could move prices. Despite that, confidence on the $200,000 contract has not changed over the past week.
The gap between near-term pricing (99.9% YES on April 26 price floors) and the longer-horizon probability (4.9% for $200,000 by December 2026) indicates the market is discounting the likelihood of the longer-term target even as MicroStrategy continues to accumulate.
Key factors highlighted include further Bitcoin purchases by major corporate treasuries and regulatory changes that could affect institutional participation. Policy shifts from the Federal Reserve and announcements from firms such as BlackRock are also identified as potential catalysts for repricing the $200,000 contract.
A YES share at 5¢ pays $1 if Bitcoin hits $200,000 by December 2026, implying a potential 20x return. Achieving that payoff would require believing that MicroStrategy’s accumulation will translate into broader institutional adoption at a pace the market currently does not expect.
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