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Oil tankers and cargo ships are remaining cautious about sailing through the Strait of Hormuz after Iran said Friday that the sea lane is open to commercial traffic, though subsequent statements and reported ship movements have added uncertainty.
Oil futures fell sharply on Friday as markets interpreted Tehran’s announcement as a breakthrough that could ease disruption to global energy supplies. The U.S. benchmark, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), settled down 12% at $83.85 per barrel, while Brent crude futures finished the day down 9%.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi initially said the strait was “completely open” for the remainder of the ceasefire with the U.S. and Israel. However, Iranian media aligned with the Revolutionary Guard issued conditions for safe passage that resemble rules Tehran has imposed for weeks.
According to a source close to Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, commercial ships must follow a route designated by Tehran and coordinate with its military. The Tasnim report also said ships are not allowed to pass if they or their cargoes are linked to hostile nations.
Matt Smith, director of commodity research at Kpler, said some tankers and cargo ships attempted to exit the strait on Friday via the route designated by Iran around Larak Island, but then turned back. “They’ve clearly not been given approval to pass through,” Smith said.
Tom er Ranaan, a maritime risk analyst at Lloyd’s List Intelligence, said it remains unclear whether there has been a “dramatic change.” “Iran still wants ships to transit through its territorial waters,” he said.
Meanwhile, President Donald Trump said the U.S. naval blockade of Iran remains in place. Tehran has threatened to close the strait if the blockade is not lifted, adding to the uncertainty over how durable any opening is.
Freight analyst Matthew Wright at Kpler said the strait remains functionally closed. “It is a false dawn,” Wright said.
BIMCO, the world’s largest shipping association, advised vessels on Friday to avoid the strait due to the threat of mines. “The area is ‘not declared safe for transit at this point,’” said Jakob Larsen, BIMCO’s chief security officer.
Even if diplomatic progress helps calm oil futures, analysts said it does not immediately resolve the physical disruption to energy supplies. The disruption is expected to worsen if the strait remains closed.
The final oil and product tankers that departed the Persian Gulf before the strait closed have completed their weekslong journey to destinations across Asia, Europe and North America. One of those shipments—a tanker carrying Iraqi crude—is expected to arrive in Long Beach, California, next week, according to Wright.
Smith said the “dominoes” will begin to fall as oil no longer arrives from the strait. He said refineries in Asia, which are heavily dependent on Middle East oil, will likely have to cut output. Wright added that countries importing products such as jet fuel from Asian refineries could face supply shortfalls.
Wright said the supply crunch in Asia is larger than elsewhere, noting that refiners have already significantly drawn down on onshore inventories. He added that it will take months for traffic through the strait to return to normal.
Large shipping companies are likely to wait and observe the first movers before resuming broader transits, Wright said.
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