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Historical on-chain data suggests Bitcoin bear markets have ended at a specific inflection point, and analysts say the same signal deserves close attention in the current cycle.
Joao Wedson highlighted research from Alphractal indicating that previous bear markets ended when the Short-Term Holder Realized Price crossed below the Long-Term Holder Realized Price. Analysts interpret this crossover as capitulation among newer market participants, with coins transferring to stronger hands.
In earlier cycles, once that shift occurred, downside momentum faded and accumulation phases began. The subsequent bull market typically started when the two metrics crossed again and continued for roughly three years.
Analysts argue the relationship between short-term and long-term cost bases remains one of the most reliable structural signals for identifying cycle bottoms.
While the on-chain trigger has not yet clearly resolved in the current environment, technical analysts see early signs of stabilization. Bitcoin is trading around $67,911, an area described as structurally significant.
Javon Marks said price action is forming a hidden bullish divergence, a pattern that often precedes continuation moves. If support holds, he argued Bitcoin could build a base for another expansion wave, with potential targets of $116,652 and, eventually, a retest of all-time highs above $126,000.
Drawdown data, however, tempers expectations that the bear phase is already fully complete. The current decline is roughly 47% from peak to daily close, which remains far below the more than 90% collapse recorded in 2012.
Darkfost noted that bear markets have gradually become less severe over time. If that moderation trend continues, a correction in the 60% to 70% range would align more closely with prior cycles.
At press time, Bitcoin is hovering near $68,000 after geopolitical volatility tied to developments in Iran triggered sharp intraday swings. ETF outflows totaling $9.15 billion over the past four months, along with broader macro uncertainty, continue to weigh on sentiment.
Investors are therefore focused on whether on-chain signals confirm the end of the downturn.
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