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Gold prices are likely to continue falling if oil prices remain around 90 USD per barrel, according to Mr. Vu Duy Khanh, Director of the Analytics Center at Smart Invest. In this scenario, gold tends to decline, real estate stays under pressure, while stocks are mixed and investors face difficulty finding clear opportunities.
Mr. Khanh said the ongoing Middle East conflict is disrupting roughly 12.3 million barrels per day of oil supply, compared with about 5.9 million barrels per day during the Iranian Revolution in 1979 and around 2 million barrels per day from the Russia–Ukraine conflict.
He cited research indicating that if oil rises above 138 USD per barrel within a 5–55 week window, a recession becomes “almost certain,” which would likely bring higher unemployment, falling asset prices, stock declines, and a sluggish real estate market.
The expert also noted that oil prices strongly influence investment markets. Stocks have fallen about 17%, among the sharpest declines globally. Gold, however, often moves inversely to expectations: when geopolitical tensions rise, gold tends to fall; when tensions ease, gold tends to rise.
Mr. Khanh attributed this pattern to inflation pressures that lift US bond yields and rate expectations, drawing funds toward USD-denominated assets. He added that some central banks may sell gold to stabilize their currencies.
If the conflict cools early, oil prices may stabilize around 80 USD per barrel. The expert said it is unlikely to return to 65 USD per barrel due to structural supply changes. In this case, stocks typically recover first, and then capital may flow into real estate, similar to the Covid-19 period when stocks led the rebound and real estate followed.
If the conflict escalates significantly and a strategic chokepoint is blocked, oil could rise to 150–160 USD per barrel, pushing the global economy into recession. Under such conditions, most asset classes would decline and cash would become the preferred option to preserve capital. Mr. Khanh said this scenario is not widely expected.
In the neutral scenario, the conflict remains moderate, shipping lanes continue operating (though costs rise), and there are no major attacks on oil and gas infrastructure. Throughput through the strait could recover to about 70–80%, with oil fluctuating around 90 USD per barrel.
Mr. Khanh said gold would tend to fall, real estate would continue to face difficulties, and stocks would be mixed and not easy to invest in. He recommended prioritizing defensive sectors such as fertilizers and consumer staples (food and beverages) over cyclical sectors.
On how quickly markets react, Mr. Khanh said stocks respond almost immediately to oil-price movements and war news, sometimes overreacting early on with volatility up to 70–100 points before stabilizing. Real estate has a longer lag: even when interest rates are at 14–15%, the market reacts slowly and may take several years to show a clear trend. As a result, the impact of oil prices on real estate arrives much later than on stocks.
To identify early market scenarios, the expert said oil price is the key indicator, with other factors eventually reflected in oil. He advised investors to monitor the spot price and the spread, which can reach 30–40 USD per barrel—well above the usual level around 80.
For investors when risk rises, Mr. Khanh recommended reducing exposure (for example, from 1 billion to 700–800 million VND), keeping 20–30% cash or safe assets as a buffer, and focusing on risk management rather than chasing high returns. He also emphasized favoring highly liquid channels so capital can be converted to cash quickly when needed.
Mr. Khanh suggested an allocation of 50% to defensive assets, 30% to mid-risk assets with potential gains, and 20% to growth/highly cyclical assets. He said this approach helps manage risk, and even if the 20% sleeve performs poorly, the overall portfolio can remain relatively protected.
In a rapidly changing environment, Mr. Khanh advised investors to study historical oil shocks to understand cycles, monitor central-bank policy, and analyze asset performance across time frames (2–3 months, 6 months, and 9 months) to determine investment timing, available capital, and reasonable return expectations. He also suggested considering safe options such as short-term deposits (3 months) or fixed-rate investments if long-term money needs to be preserved.
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