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Toncoin (TON) is in a pullback phase after being rejected at the $2.90 resistance during the May 7 session. After accelerated momentum last week, relative strength indicators are showing signs of exhaustion.
CoinGlass data indicates that the speed of the previous upward move eliminated short positions worth approximately $29 million. This occurred over just two days as the token approached the $3 mark, the highest level recorded in the current cycle.
Despite a 15.6% correction from the peak, the oscillation structure remains technically bullish on higher timeframes. The market also absorbed a token unlock valued at $103 million without an immediate price collapse, suggesting continued demand.
Technical analysis using Fibonacci extension levels shows that the 161.8% level at $2.46 was briefly surpassed before the reversal. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) began correcting from multi-month highs, indicating reduced buying pressure following an overbought period.
Retracement levels have been mapped to identify potential support points during the current decline. A pullback toward $2.01—corresponding to the 50% Fibonacci level—is presented as a likely scenario if selling pressure persists in the coming days.
If downside continues, the analysis points to a broader area between $1.5 and $1.8. This range aligns with the “golden pocket” between the 61.8% and 78.6% levels, which traders are monitoring for potential longer-term re-entry opportunities.
Recent sessions have seen short position liquidations accumulate above $2.50. This positioning suggests the market may be preparing for a deeper pullback. However, the possibility of a temporary “short squeeze” that pushes the price toward $3 before a final correction is not ruled out.
TON’s performance remains closely tied to overall cryptocurrency sentiment and Bitcoin trends. The article notes that Bitcoin’s long-term trend is under institutional pressure, which could affect the recovery capacity of altcoins during the remainder of 2026 if global liquidity declines.
On the network side, Telegram’s transition as the network’s main validator is described as a structural change that altered governance perceptions within the ecosystem. Technical documentation cited in the article links this shift to an increase in transaction volume recorded in May.
Investors are also cautious about macroeconomic factors that could weigh on sector capitalization. If the market remains broadly bearish, buying near the identified support levels could carry additional risk if stop-loss levels are not respected.
The next milestone for the TON network is described as price stabilization around the $2.00 psychological support, alongside new token volume developments.
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