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Each season of banks’ annual general meetings (AGMs), the publication of business plans—typically featuring credit growth, profit growth, and the ratio of non-performing loans (NPL)—draws market and investor attention. Behind these headline figures is a more complex task: every bank must balance shareholder expectations, assigned credit limits, its capital capacity, asset quality, and the policy direction set by the State Bank of Vietnam (NHNN).
For 2025, the profit of 27 listed banks reached 356.5 trillion dong, up more than 19% from 2024. Photo: Le Vu
A bank’s business plan is essentially a financial design in which each target is constrained by credit-growth limits, the ability to raise capital, and the quality of the loan portfolio. Data from banks’ disclosures show that the average plan-fulfillment rate is typically high.
Credit limits are the central variable in how a bank builds its business plan. A bank cannot simply decide to grow credit by any amount, because it must operate within allocated limits and under NHNN supervision.
Initial limits are usually determined based on financial strength, capital safety, governance quality, asset quality, and regulatory compliance. Once limits are set, banks calculate how much to mobilize, how to maintain liquidity, how to allocate credit across customer segments, and what profit expectations to target.
After determining the credit limit, the key question becomes where funds will be deployed. Even with the same credit growth, profits and risks can differ depending on the customer segments targeted.
Accordingly, a “good” plan is not only about maximizing profits; it is about balancing credit growth, net interest margin, fee income, balance-sheet resilience, and NPL risk.
Looking at the large-bank group that published full data for VCB, CTG, BID, MBB, TCB, VPB, ACB, HDB, VIB, and SHB, the 2025 results show that most banks met or approached their plans. Specifically, plan-fulfillment rates were reported as: VPB 119%, MBB 106%, VCB 103%, SHB 103%, TCB 100%, HDB 97%, ACB 85%, and VIB 83%.
On average, the completion rate is about 99.5%, nearly on plan despite credit conditions, NPLs, and capital demand not being entirely favorable. This indicates that large banks tend to set plans conservatively, aiming for high feasibility and close alignment with execution capacity.
Because banks operate in the same interest-rate, credit, and regulatory environment, differences in plans often reflect starting positions—such as capital bases, customer bases, funding costs, and risk appetite—rather than the environment itself.
Therefore, AGM messages should not be read simply as “the bank with the highest profit target is the most attractive.” More important is understanding the growth driver each bank is pursuing.
The state-owned group is described as more conservative, serving not only profit objectives but also a core role in funding the economy in line with NHNN directives. Vietcombank, BIDV, and VietinBank typically do not need to set high profit-growth targets—often below the industry average—to leave room to support the economy when needed.
Vietcombank is noted for emphasizing asset quality, stable margins, and controlling bad debts. BIDV and VietinBank also benefit from scale advantages in corporate lending, broad client networks, and participation in priority-credit programs. When public investment, manufacturing, import/export, and large corporates rebound, these banks are often among the first beneficiaries due to extensive client relationships and large funding capacity.
However, very large scale can also mean lower growth rates than private banks. For that reason, investors are advised to look at how asset quality is maintained while still supplying substantial credit to the economy.
The large private-bank group tends to set higher growth targets, supported by stronger incentives to expand market share and greater flexibility in choosing client segments.
Techcombank, VPBank, HDB, and MB are described as representative of banks relying on customer ecosystems, retail capabilities, financial services, and digital transformation. VPBank is highlighted for blending the parent bank, consumer finance, and supporting financial services, enabling higher growth targets as consumer demand and personal credit recover.
Techcombank is described as relying more on deposit management and high-income customers, large corporate clients, and a real-estate ecosystem. MB is noted for expanding digital banking, retail customers, and connections with subsidiaries.
Compared with the state-owned group, private banks can set higher profit targets due to a more flexible starting position. But a high-growth plan is considered credible only with evidence of risk control, NPL management, and cost of capital discipline.
ACB and VIB are presented as examples of a conservative retail-growth approach when analyzed side by side. ACB is described as not chasing growth at all costs, prioritizing asset quality and stable operations. Their 2025 plan completion was 85% for ACB and 83% for VIB, below the group that exceeded plans.
This is framed not as poor performance, but as reflecting moderation of growth to protect asset quality—particularly because consumer lending has remained weak in recent years.
In this view, ACB and VIB follow a different path: avoiding overheating growth, prioritizing selective customers and secured assets, and targeting sustainable mid-term profitability.
For 2026, the article notes that both banks maintain moderate growth targets. ACB aims for after-tax profit of VND 22,338 billion, up only 14%. VIB is described as maintaining a retail-driven strategy as its main growth engine, with customer loan outstanding near VND 273,000 billion (about 70% of total lending), of which more than 90% is collateralized. VIB also targets pre-tax profit of VND 11,550 billion and 15% credit growth for 2026.
Reading a bank’s business plan is not merely a promise of profits during the AGM season. It is a balance between credit limits, capital capacity, funding costs, margins, fee income, and NPL risk. Investors are advised to focus not only on growth numbers, but also on the growth structure and the asset quality behind those numbers.
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