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Giấy phép số 4978/GP-TTĐT do Sở Thông tin và Truyền thông Hà Nội cấp ngày 14 tháng 10 năm 2019 / Giấy phép SĐ, BS GP ICP số 2107/GP-TTĐT do Sở TTTT Hà Nội cấp ngày 13/7/2022.
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The U.S.-Iran negotiations are gaining traction, and Bitcoin prediction markets are reflecting that optimism. The market for Bitcoin surpassing $62,000 by April 18 is priced at 99.2% YES.
The April 18 sub-market holds steady at 99.2% YES. Daily actual USDC traded is $10,150, spread across enough participants that the move does not appear to be driven by a small number of large positions.
At the same time, the probability of a dip to $60,000 in the April market is effectively dormant, suggesting that broader optimism around the U.S.-Iran negotiations has reduced expectations for downside moves during the remaining timeframe.
A YES share at 99.2¢ pays $1 if Bitcoin stays above $62,000 by April 18. The structure implies a low-risk, low-reward position, with traders focused more on stability than volatility. Unless the ceasefire collapses, the odds are unlikely to change materially.
Geopolitics remains the key driver: a breakdown in U.S.-Iran talks would be one of the few catalysts that could push Bitcoin below the $62,000 threshold within the remaining period.
The next key event is the outcome of U.S.-Iran talks next week. A formalized deal could keep Bitcoin comfortably above $62,000 through April 18. Conversely, a collapse in negotiations is the main risk that could bring volatility back to an otherwise settled market.

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