U.S. stocks rally to new highs as investor optimism returns

For some stock-market investors, a sense of euphoria is back. Stocks have climbed sharply, with the momentum trade appearing to return as investors look past the worst effects of the conflict in Iran. The S&P 500 set new intraday and closing highs, and the Nasdaq posted a record close.

Market rally led by large-cap benchmarks

The Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS) rose more than 11% from the top of April through Wednesday’s close, outpacing the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight Fund (RSP) and the market-cap weighted State Street SPDR S&P 500 (SPY). The strength in large-cap stocks has helped push U.S. equities back into positive territory for the year.

Why investors are leaning into risk

Fear had kept major U.S. stock indexes in a holding pattern since the start of the Iran war. Although fighting is described as far from over, investors are currently treating geopolitical uncertainty as less immediate.

As of Wednesday’s close, several indicators extended their declines, including the CBOE VIX (a widely watched fear gauge), the U.S. Dollar Index, and crude oil futures. Market participants and analysts cited the ongoing earnings season as a near-term support, while noting that some CEOs and bond investors are still monitoring risks that could disrupt the current optimism.

Momentum and breadth of the move

Deutsche Bank macro strategist Henry Allen said the latest recovery “bests the post-Liberation Day bounce,” noting that the S&P 500 is up almost 10% over the last 10 sessions. The rally has also spread into smaller stocks, including an example described as a former shoe company-turned-AI-infrastructure play that was rising sharply on the day referenced in the article.

Earnings expectations and investor positioning

U.S. stocks could climb further if investors reward companies that beat Street earnings estimates. DataTrek’s Nicholas Colas and Jessica Rabe wrote in a note Tuesday evening that first-quarter reports should meet this benchmark and provide a foundation for a continued rally.

Still, some investors are staying cautious. The Osterweis team said that the combination of heightened economic and geopolitical uncertainty feels unprecedented and that it plans to remain defensive until key crosscurrents resolve.

What remains a concern

Even with the current risk-on mood, investors flagged ongoing questions around energy prices, the job market, trade, and other factors that could challenge the rally.

This article has been updated since it was first published to reflect the close of trading.