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Global carbon credits trading is emerging as a key green asset as countries pursue a low-carbon transition and aim for net-zero emissions by 2050. In this market, countries with surplus emission allowances can sell to those with higher emissions or less stringent targets. The voluntary carbon market has grown steadily over the past two decades, and a SHS Securities report forecasts that by 2030 the market size could reach between $10 billion and $40 billion.
The establishment and operation of carbon markets—both compliance and voluntary—are central to Vietnam’s net-zero commitment by 2050. Before Vietnam’s domestic mandatory market is implemented, many carbon credit projects in the country have already been listed and traded through global voluntary mechanisms.
In Southeast Asia, carbon markets are developing unevenly across countries. Indonesia has implemented a cap-and-trade system, Singapore taxes carbon and promotes a voluntary market, while Vietnam, Malaysia, and Thailand are building domestic trading frameworks. Although policy and standards remain fragmented, the region has significant potential due to abundant renewable energy resources and a natural carbon sink ecosystem.
SHS notes that by 2030–2050, ASEAN aims to expand renewables, harmonize carbon pricing mechanisms under Paris Agreement Article 6, and develop higher-quality carbon markets. If implemented effectively, the carbon market could become a major source of climate finance, improve export competitiveness, and support regional decarbonization goals by mid-century.
SHS highlights that the three largest emissions sectors in the region—accounting for about 65%—are AFOLU (agriculture, forestry and other land use), power generation, and transportation. Vietnam has a notable share of emissions from energy and industry, while land use and agriculture remain important.
This implies Vietnam faces both energy-transition pressures and opportunities linked to renewable energy development, forest carbon credits, and sustainable agriculture. With rich biodiversity and extensive marine and land resources, Southeast Asia could meet rising international demand by supplying forestation credits and credits tied to avoiding deforestation for international carbon trading, strengthening its position as a long-term carbon credit supplier.
SHS estimates that led by Indonesia (approximately 749.4 million tCO2e), the nine Southeast Asian markets together could generate about 1,267.5 million carbon credits from land and marine resources by 2050. Vietnam is expected to generate about 103 million credits by 2050.
SHS argues that Vietnam has substantial potential for carbon credit projects, citing its “golden forest” and “silver sea” advantages.
PanNature data from March 2023 shows that by November 2022, Vietnam had 276 CDM projects and nearly 29.4 million carbon credits issued under the CDM framework. Beyond CDM, Vietnam has also developed carbon credit projects under other independent international standards.
Vietnam is described as being at a “hinge point” in forming and developing its carbon market. Key policy milestones include the amended Environmental Protection Law, Decree 06/2022/ND-CP, and the latest Decree 119/2025/ND-CP issued in June 2025. Together, these documents reflect the government’s commitment to building a national carbon market aligned with the net-zero goal and international obligations under the Paris Agreement.
In recent years, Vietnam has moved from broad climate and green growth strategies toward a more detailed legal framework and sector-level implementation. Earlier directives set emissions reduction ambitions, while subsequent laws and decrees established legal foundations for market mechanisms. The most recent texts focus on readiness to operate, clarifying the roles of government agencies, setting measurement and verification rules for on-land sectors, and designing the market structure for operation.
Vietnam’s carbon market is being implemented in three stages from 2023 to 2025, with subsequent expansion thereafter:
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