Vietnamese stock market set for a cautious week as foreign buying returns and rate cuts support sentiment, with MSCI upgrade eyed as a catalyst

Several positive signals, including banks cutting interest rates, expectations of an upgrade in September, and investor profit-taking, have brightened the stock market. Analysts predict that next week the VN-Index will hover around the 1,750-point level, but deployment should remain cautious, prioritizing sectors with solid Q1 results such as securities, steel, and banks.

Foreign flows turn positive as VN-Index rises

Mr. Dang Tran Phuc, chairman of AZfin Vietnam, said the April 10 trading session showed notable signals from foreign investors returning to net-buy more than 842 billion VND, after the previous session had net-sold over 2,000 billion VND. He added that the proprietary trading sector also posted a net buy.

Mr. Phuc noted that in the past two weeks foreigners have often net-sold on days of gains, so the current up day—when the VN-Index rose 0.77%—paired with net buying is an unusual signal. He highlighted three points: (1) the net buying runs counter to the recent selling trend; (2) the buying occurred during a volatile session rather than a broad rally; and (3) foreign buying was particularly strong in TCB, with nearly 6.8 million shares traded.

He said the reversal from an aggressive foreign selling stance to a sizable net-buy on HoSE is noteworthy, and the focus on TCB as a driver is warranted. The article also points to a risk factor that is unusual: the temporary easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which could reduce downside pressure. Upcoming Q1 2026 results, expected within the next 1–2 weeks, could provide further momentum for stock prices.

Macro and credit policy: deposit rates cut across banks

Policy actions on macro and credit are described as more aggressive. After a meeting with the new State Bank of Vietnam governor Pham Duc An, several commercial banks announced reductions in deposit rates to ease lending costs.

• Vietcombank cut deposit rates by 0.5 percentage points per year, bringing the 24-month rate down to 6% per year from April 13, 2026.
• BIDV cut deposit rates for 24- and 36-month tenors from a high of 6.5% to 6% per year, while other tenors remained unchanged.
• Sacombank said it would reduce both deposit and lending rates by 0.5% per year across multiple tenors from April 10, 2026.
• LPBank trimmed deposit rates by 0.3–1% per year across several tenors from April 10, 2026 nationwide, including post offices.
• VPBank lowered deposit rates for terms from 6–36 months by 0.3–0.5% per year.
• SeABank cut 0.5% per year for tenors of six months or longer for new deposits from April 10, 2026.

The coordinated actions are presented as reflecting a balanced approach to funding costs for savers and borrowers.

MSCI upgrade expectations in September

Positive signals from the upgrade news are also discussed. Mr. Phuc said a market upgrade would support not only capital inflows but also the market’s development and international recognition. If Vietnam continues toward MSCI’s emerging-market status, he said inflows could grow beyond the FTSE Russell upgrade scenario.

He noted that after upgrading from frontier to secondary emerging, Vietnam could attract roughly $1–1.6 billion in foreign funds, with about 10% expected in September 2026 and the remainder in 2027.

Potential impact on liquidity and foreign capital

VNDirect’s economist, Din Quang Hinh, said the upgrade has been awaited for a long time and would be a milestone for the market. He added that it would enable reforms and broader access to international standards, products, and investors.

The formal upgrade to MSCI’s secondary emerging-market status is expected to take effect in September 2026 and could help Vietnam access larger foreign funds, potentially bringing in $2–3 billion from ETFs and other sources. The article links the expected outcome to increased liquidity, new products, and improved policy and infrastructure, which could enhance market efficiency and transparency and strengthen domestic investor confidence.

Source: Pham Duy, VTC News