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The VN-Index has risen sharply, but liquidity has not kept pace, leaving a market that is climbing without a clear surge in new money. With many investors staying in cash and watching developments, the key question is what could draw funds back into equities.
Money has been cautious in recent sessions, with total turnover falling as investors keep higher cash allocations. Over the latest 20 trading days, liquidity declined by about 15–16% on average.
For instance, on Apr 20, total turnover across the two exchanges was about 18,800 billion VND, down more than 13% from the previous session and the lowest in two weeks. On Apr 21, the market recorded only over 771,000 matched orders, with turnover near 23,000 billion VND.
MB Securities (MBS) attributes the reluctance of large capital to several headwinds, including investor psychology shaped by turbulence in the Middle East and ongoing foreign selling pressure. MBS notes that the market’s four-week rise has been followed by a four-week foreign net sale run of about −11,000 billion VND.
Liquidity and market breadth also appear to be lagging behind the index’s gains. While the VN-Index has breached 1,800 points and moved toward around 1,850 points, only about one-third of stocks traded above the 200-day moving average. In addition, profit margins are concentrated in a limited number of stock groups, which has restrained overall liquidity.
Funds are also being directed to alternative channels. Gold, real estate in certain segments, foreign exchange, and even holding cash are described as reasonable options when investors have multiple choices—meaning equities are no longer the only “go-to” destination as they were during the era of cheap money.
Interest-rate conditions have not been supportive for margin demand. Since the end of last year, deposit and lending rates have edged up again due to a shortage of liquidity in the banking system. Margin lending at securities companies has risen to around 13–14% per year, which can curb investors’ leverage appetite, particularly in a market with unpredictable volatility.
Although rates have eased from their peak, deposit rates remain attractive for investors prioritizing safety. Some investors are reportedly willing to place money in savings to secure stable yields rather than taking stock-market risk.
With liquidity still low since the start of the year and cash concentrated in certain stock groups, experts expect higher volatility. To attract real inflows, the market needs to demonstrate that the current uptrend has a solid foundation.
Investors may accept higher prices if they believe companies will grow strongly. However, if profits do not rise, rapid price increases could make valuations expensive and increase the risk of correction. The upcoming earnings season is therefore viewed as a crucial test.
Confidence would likely be reinforced if major banks, real estate, retail, steel, technology, and exporters show genuine revenue and profit recovery.
Liquidity must rise in a durable way. A market that climbs on low turnover typically suggests only a small amount of money is driving the index, making the uptrend vulnerable to negative news or sudden selling pressure.
By contrast, when liquidity increases gradually from week to week, it can indicate a broader willingness among investors to commit capital. The article notes that while liquidity has improved compared with the lull, it is still not strong enough to confirm a return of large money. It also highlights that strong up days are usually accompanied by higher matched turnover; if the index rises while turnover falls, it may signal weakening momentum.
Beyond numbers, the market needs a narrative that can attract funds. Historically, strong rallies in Vietnamese equities have been linked to major storylines such as privatization of state-owned enterprises, periods of low interest rates and cheap money, a housing market wave, or expectations of market upgrading.
At present, the upgrading story is described as the most frequently cited. If Vietnam moves closer to being upgraded from a frontier market to an emerging market, it could draw foreign capital back and shift domestic sentiment. However, the article stresses that the impact would need to be supported by concrete improvements in trading mechanisms, information transparency, and the quality of listed companies; otherwise, it may not last.
Investors also want stability in interest rates, exchange rates, credit, and the business environment. Supportive policy for growth—while continuing to manage risks—would likely improve sentiment. Conversely, shocks such as renewed inflation, exchange-rate pressure, rising interest rates, or external developments could cause money to retreat quickly.
VNDirect says Vietnam’s likely upgrade to secondary emerging market status by FTSE Russell in September 2026, alongside strong infrastructure and legal framework reforms, could bring the market closer to regional standards. These factors are expected to bolster confidence and attract additional capital from major investors.
VNDirect also points to a stable macroeconomic base and encouraging earnings prospects as fundamental support for the market in the coming year. In its base scenario, VNDirect forecasts overall market profit growth of about 18% in 2026. It also expects liquidity to improve, with average daily turnover rising around 25% versus 2025 to about 36,400 billion VND per session.
— Hải Giang
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