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Gold has slipped into bear-market territory after giving up its gains for the year, even as US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) continued to attract fresh money—pushing the two assets onto sharply different paths.
Spot gold traded near $4,388 an ounce on March 23, according to goldprice.org, down about 22% from its Jan. 29 record of $5,594.82. The decline accelerated after the latest Middle East conflict began on Feb. 28, with gold down about 17% since then and reversing the early-2026 advance.
Gold’s fall has unfolded against a macro backdrop that has become less supportive for assets that tend to benefit from lower yields and a softer dollar. The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady in March and projected the benchmark rate at 3.4% at the end of 2026, while core personal consumption expenditures inflation remained at 2.7%. The combination reinforced expectations that policy could stay restrictive longer than investors had anticipated earlier in the year.
For bullion, the impact is direct: higher rates increase the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset, while a firmer dollar adds pressure by making gold more expensive for buyers using other currencies. Those forces intensified as investors sought cash and liquidity following the Middle East shock, which led to a repricing of growth, inflation, and energy expectations.
Fund-flow data captured the shift quickly. LSEG Lipper data show global gold and precious-metals funds posted about $5.19 billion in weekly net outflows through March 18, the largest weekly withdrawal since at least August 2018. In the same week, money market funds took in $32.57 billion.
The rotation suggests investors moved toward liquidity and away from positions that had benefited from earlier inflation and geopolitical hedging demand. The selloff also came after a period in which gold’s long-term support looked firm, supported by central-bank demand through 2025.
Additional ETF data pointed in the same direction. SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), the largest US gold-backed ETF, recorded $7.07 billion in outflows in March, according to market data. That exceeded the previous monthly record withdrawal of $6.8 billion in April 2013.
By a common market definition, a decline of 20% or more from a recent peak marks a bear market. Gold’s drop of about 22% from its January peak places it clearly in that category, indicating more than a routine pullback after a rally.
While gold was losing ground, US spot Bitcoin ETFs posted their strongest inflow streak of 2026. Farside data show the 12 US spot Bitcoin funds recorded four consecutive weeks of net inflows, with more than $2 billion added during that period—the longest run of 2026 and the strongest since August and September 2025, when the funds absorbed more than $3.8 billion.
CoinShares data showed a similar trend globally, with Bitcoin exchange-traded products registering $1.5 billion in inflows so far this month.
Over the same period, gold funds were experiencing large redemptions, highlighting the divergence in how investors were allocating capital across the two markets.
State Street Global Advisors highlighted the volatility gap in its March gold monitor. Over a trailing 10-year period, rolling 30-day volatility for Bitcoin averaged about 52.0, compared with 13.6 for gold. From January 2016 through February 2026, Bitcoin recorded 30 months with losses greater than 8%, while gold recorded one such month.
CryptoQuant data also pointed to a sharp divergence. The firm said the Bitcoin-to-gold correlation fell to minus 0.88, the lowest reading since November 2022, indicating the two assets were moving in opposite directions with unusual force over the measured period.
Gold’s longer-term support has not disappeared, even after the March selloff. The World Gold Council said total gold demand, including over-the-counter activity, exceeded 5,000 metric tons for the first time in 2025. Gold ETF holdings rose by 801 tons last year, and central banks bought 863 tons. In February 2026 alone, physically backed gold ETFs took in $5.3 billion globally.
Oil prices may play a central role in how the balance develops. Several banks raised their 2026 Brent forecasts after the latest Middle East shock. Bank of America lifted its view to $77.50 a barrel, while Standard Chartered raised its forecast to $85.50. Bank of America also outlined an upside path toward $130 in the event of a prolonged supply disruption.
Higher oil prices could feed inflation expectations and keep the Federal Reserve cautious for longer, affecting gold and Bitcoin through different channels. Gold would likely remain under pressure if real yields and the dollar stay elevated, while Bitcoin would remain more tied to liquidity conditions, institutional risk appetite, and the willingness of ETF buyers to keep adding exposure through regulated products.
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