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After a prolonged distribution phase, Ripple’s exchange dynamics began to shift as selling pressure eased. Binance exchange reserves declined from a peak near 3.05 billion in mid-2025 to around 2.75 billion, while the price held near $1.38. The reserve peak coincided with a $3.50 price zone, reflecting heavy inflows and active distribution.
As the cycle progressed, both reserves and price dropped sharply into early 2026. Reserves bottomed near 2.55 billion and price near $1.25, which marked a capitulation phase. Since February, reserves have stabilized around 2.75 billion, suggesting that fresh sell-side supply has slowed.
This stabilization points to a more balanced market. With reduced exchange supply, the environment may support gradual accumulation if demand strengthens.
As exchange reserves stabilized and selling pressure eased, XRP’s order flow began to reflect a deeper structural shift. The Spot Average Order Size moved from whale-dominated activity to more normal activity, indicating that large players reduced their accumulation intensity.
Earlier, whale-sized orders supported prices between $2 and $3, reinforcing controlled demand. As these large orders faded, price drifted toward $1.30, reflecting a transition in participation. This suggests whales may have completed positioning, leaving the market more reliant on smaller participants.
With that shift, aggressive absorption appears to weaken, which can reduce artificial support. Still, with lower sell pressure and more balanced flows, price may move more organically if demand returns.
Spot activity shows moderate volume, indicating participation without strong conviction. Since February’s capitulation, inflows stabilized near 2.7 billion in reserves as the price tested $1.25, marking a reset phase.
However, sustained buy-side pressure remains limited, with retail flows dominating while institutional absorption stays muted. This imbalance keeps price from clearing overhead supply near $1.50–$1.60, constraining momentum.
Liquidity conditions reinforce the setup: bid-side depth remains thin and spreads widen during low-volume periods. In this environment, small increases in demand can move price sharply, while weak demand can keep the market range-bound.
Stronger inflows could accelerate price expansion, while continued weak demand may extend consolidation. Overall, the market’s ability to break higher appears dependent on whether demand can persist through the $1.50–$1.60 overhead supply area.
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