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XRP’s weakening technical setup suggests a drop below $1 could be in the cards over the next few weeks as supply rises on exchanges.
XRP’s 13% rally to $1.43 between Saturday and Sunday met resistance at the $1.39–$1.43 area, prompting a retracement to around $1.34.
A cost-basis distribution heatmap indicates a large cluster of supply in this zone, where nearly 1.48 billion XRP were acquired over the last 30 days. This concentration is described as stiff resistance that limits upside potential.
The daily XRP price chart also places this area near the upper trend line of a symmetrical triangle that has constrained the price since Feb. 1.
The XRP/USD pair is trading below the lower trend line of the triangle at $1.35. A daily candlestick close below $1.35 would validate the symmetrical triangle pattern and “clear the path” for a deeper correction.
The measured target for the pattern is $0.95, roughly 29% below the current level.
Cointelegraph also noted that a break and close below the lower boundary of a falling channel at $1.20 puts the Feb. 6 low of $1.11 at risk of breaking down, with XRP potentially falling toward the psychological support at $1.
“If this base holds and buyers step in, a rebound toward $1.80–$2.20 could happen quickly, signaling the start of a recovery move.”
The two-day chart further suggests a drop to $0.80 is possible, supported by selling activity attributed to whales.
Over the past week, more than 472 million XRP, worth about $652 million, were transferred to Binance—described as the largest exchange inflow to occur in February—according to CryptoQuant.
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost said such inflows often reflect a more defensive posture from XRP holders and can create conditions for a sudden wave of selling pressure in the short term.
As a result, XRP’s balance on Binance increased to 2.73 billion tokens from 2.55 billion in mid-February. That is an increase of about 180 million tokens (approximately +7%) in less than three weeks.
Rising XRP supply on exchanges is characterized as a bearish signal because it can outpace demand and increase sell-pressure, particularly if liquidity is positioned for near-term selling.
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