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XRP is trading below the $1.5 level as sentiment improves around progress on the US Market Structure Bill, a development that is supporting demand for the token. The White House said the TradFi–DeFi standoff could ease, raising expectations that the Senate will pass the Market Structure Bill in the spring.
In the reporting week ending February 20, the US XRP-spot ETF market recorded net inflows of 1.84 million, extending an inflow streak to three weeks. Since XRP spot ETFs began trading in November, total net inflows have reached 1.23 billion.
Lawmakers expect passage of the Market Structure Bill to boost broader XRP adoption, which is viewed as a potential positive price catalyst. NovaDius Wealth Management President Nate Geraci said the ongoing TradFi–DeFi stalemate highlights crypto’s relevance as traditional banks challenge stablecoins that offer yields.
The US XRP-spot ETF market has also outperformed the US BTC-spot ETF market since November. The combination of crypto-friendly legislation, higher XRP utility, and ETF inflows has led to discussion of a possible decoupling from Bitcoin.
For context, in the week to February 20 the US BTC-spot ETF market saw 303.5 million in net outflows. Since XRP spot ETFs began trading in November, the BTC-spot ETF market has recorded 5.33 billion in net outflows, weighing on BTC and the wider crypto market.
Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse said he expects a high likelihood that the US Senate will pass the Market Structure Bill before spring. Similar views from other crypto policy observers have helped sustain optimism about progress on stablecoin yields.
White House economics reporter Eleanor Mueller said last week’s session on stablecoin yields included discussion of exchanges paying customers for stablecoins based on activity rather than balances, and that banks would begin meetings to decide on sign-off. While the agreement on stablecoin yields may not directly affect XRP, analysts expect crypto-friendly legislation to strengthen Ripple’s position in the TradFi space—an area seen as important for XRP utility.
XRP moved from a December 31 low of $1.8103 to a January 6 high of $2.4151 after the Senate Banking Committee announced a markup vote on draft Market Structure Bill text. The token later fell to a February low of $1.1227 after the committee postponed the markup vote.
More recently, XRP has reclaimed $1.43 amid improved optimism tied to legislative developments.
XRP has fallen about 13.27% in February, mirroring Bitcoin’s decline and reflecting Bitcoin’s influence on broader sentiment.
Year-to-date, XRP is down 22.63%, supporting a cautiously bearish short-term outlook (1–4 weeks) with a target price of $1.0.
At the same time, ETF flow trends and improved optimism around Senate action support bullish medium- to long-term projections:
Several scenarios could undermine the constructive medium-term bias:
The article also highlights Bank of Japan chatter and USD/JPY risk, citing the potential impact of the mid-2024 yen carry trade unwind on XRP. A hawkish Bank of Japan with a higher neutral interest rate (potentially 1.5%–2.5%) could imply multiple rate hikes, narrowing US–Japan rate differentials and potentially triggering a yen carry trade unwind that would reduce market liquidity. For context, the BoJ previously announced a wider neutral rate band of 1%–2.5% but said it would announce a narrower range later.
On February 21, XRP rose 0.08% after the previous day’s 1.57% gain, closing at $1.4301. The token outperformed the broader crypto market cap, which ended the session flat.
Despite reclaiming $1.43, XRP remains below its 50-day and 200-day EMAs, with EMA positioning signaling a bearish bias. The 50-day EMA has flattened further, suggesting easing near-term selling pressure, while positive fundamentals continue to counter bearish technicals.
Key technical levels to watch include:
A break above $1.50 would bring the 50-day EMA into focus. A sustained move through the 50-day EMA would signal a near-term bullish trend reversal and could open the door to testing the 200-day EMA. A sustained breakout above the EMAs would reinforce the medium- to longer-term price targets.
Near-term price drivers cited include XRP-spot ETF flows, US economic data and the Fed’s policy stance, crypto-related legislative developments, the Bank of Japan’s neutral rate and rate path, and increased geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
The article also frames the structure as still bearish: XRP is down 3.3% on the week, and a drop below the lower trendline would expose the February 6 low of $1.1227. If $1.0 is breached, it would be the next key support level and would reinforce the cautiously bearish short-term outlook.
Conversely, reclaiming $1.5 would bring $2.0 and the upper trendline into play. A sustained move through the upper trendline would invalidate the bearish structure and signal a bullish trend reversal, supporting the constructive medium-term bias.
Short-term (1–4 weeks): $1.0
Medium-term (4–8 weeks): $2.5
Longer-term (8–12 weeks): $3.0
Overall, XRP remains exposed to geopolitical risk in the Middle East, including the possibility of a US–Iran conflict that could overshadow crypto regulatory developments. Still, progress on the Market Structure Bill is presented as a key factor supporting a bullish medium- to longer-term outlook, alongside continued US XRP-spot ETF demand.
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