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XRP price has remained under pressure since the beginning of 2026, extending a steady downtrend that started in early January. The altcoin has repeatedly failed to reclaim major resistance levels. Weak macro sentiment and geopolitical tensions have limited upside momentum across the broader crypto market. Despite the ongoing decline, several historical and on-chain indicators suggest XRP may be approaching a turning point.
The Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) indicator shows XRP remains in capitulation territory, a phase in which many holders are sitting on unrealized losses. Capitulation typically marks the late stage of a downtrend rather than the beginning.
Historically, XRP’s capitulation phases have lasted close to one month before reversing. The current stretch began at the start of February. If prior patterns repeat, this period could end for the XRP price in the first week of March. A reduction in panic-driven selling would allow price stabilization and open the door to recovery.
The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) indicates that many XRP holders are still selling at a loss. A brief move above 1 occurred in mid-February, signaling temporary profitability. However, the metric quickly fell back below 1, showing renewed selling pressure.
Seasonality data shows that over the past 12 years, March has delivered an average 18% return for XRP, making it the strongest month in the first quarter.
While past performance does not guarantee future gains, historical trends remain relevant. External risks could still interfere, including escalating geopolitical tensions involving the US and Israel, as well as broader financial instability that may delay seasonal bullish tendencies.
XRP is trading at $1.29 at the time of writing, holding above the critical $1.27 support level. This level aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, often described as a bear market support floor. Maintaining this threshold is essential to prevent a deeper correction.
If capitulation ends and macro conditions stabilize, XRP could bounce from $1.27 and challenge the descending trendline active since January. A move above $1.51 would confirm a structural shift, and it also coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, a key recovery benchmark.
On-chain data suggests limited resistance until the $1.76 to $1.80 range. Approximately 1.85 billion XRP were accumulated within this zone, valued at nearly $2.83 billion. Holders who bought there may sell to break even, creating temporary resistance.
However, failure to hold $1.27 would invalidate the bullish outlook. A breakdown below the bear market support floor could send XRP toward $1.11. Continued sideways consolidation remains possible if global uncertainty persists. For now, March presents both risk and opportunity for XRP price recovery.
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