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February ended unfavorably for XRP on both USD and BTC charts, with the BTC pair showing a notable -53% signal on the monthly timeframe alongside Bollinger Bands. During February, XRP underperformed in every format: against the U.S. dollar, it fell by more than 16%. On its ratio versus Bitcoin, XRP finished the month below the middle Bollinger Band level on the monthly timeframe, which corresponds to the 20-month moving average, according to TradingView.
The midline of Bollinger Bands is often used to separate market trends on a given timeframe. When an asset trades below the midline band, the prevailing trend is generally considered bearish. In that case, the lower Bollinger Band becomes the key reference level for price action.
For the XRP/BTC ratio, the lower Bollinger Band is at 0.00009775 BTC per XRP. This level is 52.91% below the current valuation of the XRP-to-Bitcoin ratio.
Since that reference point, XRP has declined by 40% against Bitcoin. It has also moved into the lower corridor defined by the Bollinger Bands.
While the analysis does not imply an immediate move to the lower boundary, the outlook for XRP outperforming Bitcoin appears constrained until there is a confident monthly close back above the middle Bollinger Band. Without that, expectations that XRP can replicate the outperformance seen over the previous two years should remain limited.
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