After three consecutive sessions of declines,
gold prices reversed course in the afternoon of July 9, edging higher.
Updated in the afternoon of July 9, gold prices unexpectedly reversed and rose by about 500,000 dong per tael. Accordingly, SJC gold bullion on the market is currently commonly priced at 146.0–149.0 million dong per tael.
For
24K plain gold jewelry, SJC is listing this type of gold at 145.7–148.7 million dong per tael. DOJI applies 144.8–148.8 million dong per tael while PNJ is 145.0–148.5.
Global gold prices also turned higher, above the 4,100
USD per ounce level.
In the morning of July 9, SJC gold prices at companies such as DOJI, PNJ, Bao Tin Manh Hai, Bao Tin Minh Chau were commonly 145.5–148.5 million dong per tael.
The price of plain jewelry gold shows slight differences among brands. For example at SJC and PNJ, this type of gold is now quoted 145.2–148.2 million dong per tael. Meanwhile Bao Tin Manh Hai applies 144.3–148.3 million dong per tael. DOJI quotes 145.5–148.5.
Thus, compared to the week's high last week, gold prices have fallen by as much as 3 million dong per tael, while the bid-ask spread remains 3 million per tael. Buyers last week and sellers now could incur losses up to 6 million per tael.
On the international market, gold prices after a few sessions of rebound turned down sharply on the evening of July 8, at one point dropping 150 USD per ounce to 4,020 USD per ounce. Now gold has reversed higher to 4,071 USD per ounce.
Gold remains under downward pressure as investors weigh between renewed tensions in the Middle East and the Fed's plan to publish the minutes of the June FOMC meeting tomorrow.
According to Kitco News, if the old scenario, Tuesday's news should have been a clear supportive factor for gold. Two oil tankers were attacked in the Hormuz Strait, and Tehran stated there would be no new round of peace talks unless President Trump stops his continuous threats of restarting the war. A decade ago, this information mix would surely push capital into gold as a safe-haven.
However, the paradox seen in recent months continued on Tuesday. Geopolitical risk no longer flows directly into gold. It first moves to crude oil, then affects inflation expectations, and finally impacts Fed policy — and when it reaches the gold threshold, it has turned from a driver to a drag.
Crude oil prices rose after the tanker attack, and higher fuel costs keep inflation fears alive. In the current monetary framework, persistent inflation pressure means rates stay high. Gold, an asset that does not yield income, bears the cost of that transformation. The metal that previously benefited from turmoil now pays the price whenever turmoil pushes crude oil higher.
Mr. Peter Grant, Vice President and Senior Gold Strategist at Zaner Metals, summed up the market sentiment: reality is becoming clear that the Fed remains focused on containing inflation, so the scenario of “higher for longer” interest rates remains the most feasible path for the agency.
It should be noted that the two-week rise in gold reached a peak on Monday was built on weaker-than-forecast US jobs data released last week, leading traders to trim expectations for near-term rate hikes. However, that relief did not last long. According to CME FedWatch, traders are still pricing in a 60% probability of a rate hike in September — a figure that does not indicate the market believes the tightening cycle has ended.
In this context, the release of the June FOMC minutes tomorrow is particularly important. Investors will scrutinize every word for clues about the Fed's inflation concerns, as well as whether the weak jobs data recently observed is a trend or just a temporary anomaly. Under Chair Warsh, the Fed currently appears reluctant to hastily declare victory over inflation, and the minutes will reveal the committee's level of consensus on that hawkish stance.
