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Bitcoin’s 30-day correlation with the U.S. Dollar Index has deepened to -0.90, its most negative level since 2022, meaning bitcoin has been moving sharply in the opposite direction of the dollar. Roughly 81% of bitcoin’s recent short-term price moves are statistically linked to shifts in the index, and the cryptocurrency’s rally has stalled as the dollar has rebounded amid geopolitical and inflation risks. Despite continued inflows into U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs, major investors remain cautious, with SkyBridge’s Anthony Scaramucci suggesting a more meaningful bitcoin recovery may not arrive until later in the year, while ether continues to underperform bitcoin on key technical measures. For bitcoin, traders note the direction of the Dollar Index (DXY) hasn’t mattered this much in nearly four years. The 30-day correlation coefficient sits at -0.90, the most negative reading since September 2022. A reading below 0 indicates an inverse relationship: When the dollar weakens, bitcoin gains, and vice versa. Notably, bitcoin’s rally has stalled since hitting highs above $79,000 on Wednesday as the DXY bounced to 98.75 from the April 17 low of 97.63. Macro is still trying to lean against BTC’s continued rally. Oil has risen for five straight sessions and Hormuz remains effectively constrained, which should be a headwind because it keeps the inflation channel alive and keeps risk premia from fully unwinding. One positive is the sustained inflows into the U.S.-listed spot ETFs. While those are keeping prices supported, industry leaders remain cautious. Anthony Scaramucci said bitcoin may not see a meaningful recovery until October or November, and the current price action aligns with BTC’s four-year reward halving cycle. He noted whales and long-time holders have continued to sell into ETF-driven demand.
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