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Bitcoin (BTC) may be starting to shake off the worst part of the downturn that began in October last year, according to new research from Grayscale. The firm points to Feb. 5—when BTC traded around $63,000—as a durable market bottom. Potential Start Of A New Bitcoin Bull Market In Grayscale’s view, the rebound since that low has been meaningful. The firm’s Head of Research, Zach Pandl, said the BTC price bottomed at roughly $63,000 and has since climbed more than 20%, reaching about $76,000. That level, he noted, is slightly above the average cost basis for recent buyers, which matters because it can reduce the incentive to sell after a drop. In other words, if many holders are no longer underwater, selling pressure may ease at a time when buyers are trying to regain control. For Bitcoin transacted over the past one to three months, Grayscale says the realized price is about $74,000. That implies many newer buyers are already back near break-even. If BTC continues rising in the days ahead, more recent participants could shift into positive profit and loss, which Grayscale treats as a potential early sign of a bull-market transition. $78,000 Still Holds The Key Adding to the bullish case, Bitcoin whales reportedly added about 45,000 BTC last week, the fastest weekly accumulation pace since July 2025. Long-term holders, meanwhile, have reportedly accumulated more than 1 million BTC over the past three months. Glassnode data also indicates that upward momentum has cooled somewhat. Even so, it still points to strong buyer interest, which could help cushion the market and reduce the odds of a sharp slide. At the same time, trading activity on centralized exchanges has risen, suggesting ongoing participation rather than a sudden exit. In the Bitcoin ETF sector, Glassnode points to several indicators improving, including an increase in the MVRV ratio alongside netflow. These signals are described as consistent with improved profitability expectations and stronger investor interest. That price point has capped stronger upside moves toward $80,000 since Jan. 30. The overall takeaway is that the market may be setting up for a larger move, but the next step likely depends on whether resistance can be cleared.
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