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Bitcoin has issued an unusual technical signal during the current bear market. CryptoQuant’s Bull Score index has crossed the 50 threshold, moving out of the red zone and into neutral territory for the first time since the start of the downturn.
On April 22, Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, published an analysis on X stating that the Bull Score has risen to 50 for the first time since the bear market began. The move marks a shift from the bearish zone into neutral territory.
Moreno noted that the index does not measure price alone. It aggregates ten metrics spanning network activity, investor profitability, liquidity, and technical and fundamental signals. A score of 50 implies that roughly half of these signals have turned “constructive,” indicating improvement in the overall picture, though not a complete reversal.
At the same time, Moreno cautioned that history may not be a reliable guide. He pointed to March 2022, when the Bull Score hovered near the neutrality threshold for about a week before the market resumed its decline.
In CryptoQuant’s framework, the “bullish” zone begins only at 60. Until the index moves above that level, bitcoin remains in a transitional state—more clearly bearish, but not yet positioned as a buy signal.
The current situation differs from 2022 in one key respect. In mid-2025, bitcoin traded above $120,000, and the Bull Score was regularly above 60. The deterioration later unfolded gradually, with prices sliding toward $60,000 and the index falling to the lowest levels of the cycle.
Since April, the trend has shifted. Bitcoin has risen toward $78,000 while the Bull Score has returned to neutral territory. The simultaneous improvement is presented as reflecting better underlying market conditions, even if it has not yet reached a clear bullish threshold.
Grayscale added to the more optimistic tone. In a note dated April 21, 2026, the firm said bitcoin’s bottom has likely already been hit in February, in a range between $65,000 and $70,000.
Grayscale’s key point is that the realized price of recent buyers is around $74,000. The firm argues that these investors are no longer underwater, which can reduce selling pressure when weaker hands stop exiting.
Neutral does not automatically mean bullish. However, after months of negative conditions, the Bull Score reaching 50 is described as a first concrete step toward an exit from the bear market. With the index at 50 and bitcoin recovering above $78,000, the market structure appears less fragile.
The next test will be whether the Bull Score can sustain a move above 60, or whether it retreats as it did after a brief neutrality period in March 2022.
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