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The founder of Capriole Investments, Charles Edwards, has warned that the Bitcoin mining industry’s pivot toward AI compute could lead to mining revenue falling to 30% within 2–3 years.
In a post on X, Edwards said many major public Bitcoin miners have announced an “AI pivot” to varying degrees. He referenced a compiled set of data on public miners shifting toward AI-related business lines.
Edwards’ assessment is that, despite these announcements, most miners have not yet generated significant revenue from AI. On average, AI accounts for 13% of major miners’ revenue, with Bitcoin (BTC) remaining the majority source of income.
Edwards suggested the situation may change if miners’ stated targets hold. He said the industry is aiming for AI revenue to cover most income by 2027–2028, adding: “On average current Bitcoin revenue is expected to drop from 90% to just 30% in the next 2-3 years!”
He also linked the transition targets to market performance. According to Edwards, miners targeting 80%+ AI share of revenue saw their stocks rise by more than 500% on average. By contrast, those targeting less than 60% AI revenue saw about one-tenth of that growth, with many reporting negative returns over the past two years.
Bitcoin relies on its mining network for security, and Edwards argued that the shift toward AI could imply weaker energy allocation to the network. He noted that it is unclear whether the AI push has affected the network’s trajectory so far.
Blockchain.com data cited in the article shows the Bitcoin hashrate—measuring total computing power connected to the blockchain—has declined over the last few months. The article added that the downtrend could also be tied to the decline in the Bitcoin price rather than the AI pivot itself.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading around $76,200, up 5.5% over the previous seven days.
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