Get the latest crypto news, updates, and reports by subscribing to our free newsletter.
Giấy phép số 4978/GP-TTĐT do Sở Thông tin và Truyền thông Hà Nội cấp ngày 14 tháng 10 năm 2019 / Giấy phép SĐ, BS GP ICP số 2107/GP-TTĐT do Sở TTTT Hà Nội cấp ngày 13/7/2022.
© 2026 Index.vn
Long-term projection models are once again being linked to Bitcoin logarithmic regression lines, a framework that suggests a potential move toward $400,000 could be conceivable over time.
While the $400,000 figure draws attention, a more grounded interpretation of the underlying model is necessary. A short-term trading tool is not logarithmic regression; instead, it is a macro framework that charts Bitcoin’s growth trajectory over time while accounting for diminishing returns as the asset ages.
The model smoothes price action into a curved channel that reflects slowing growth across cycles rather than projecting unlimited exponential upside. Historically, Bitcoin has tended to fluctuate within this range—approaching upper bounds during periods of peak euphoria and falling toward lower regions during bear phases.
In this framework, estimates such as $300,000 or $400,000 are associated with the upper band, which continues to rise over time. However, these levels are not presented as precise forecasts. Instead, they function as the model’s outermost point for what would be considered an extreme overextension.
Movements toward extreme model projections typically occur only during late-cycle phases characterized by speculative excess, even under favorable conditions.
The $400,000 idea is described as feasible only if sufficient time passes, but it cannot be “implemented” at present. Bitcoin is currently far from the trajectory needed to support such valuations.
As a result, the immediate concern is whether Bitcoin can stabilize rather than accelerate—an issue framed as more pressing than the long-range upper-band scenario.
In brief\n\nBitcoin dropped to about $93,000, falling back below the EMA50 and putting its recent golden cross at risk of invalidation. The global crypto market cap stands at $3.15 trillion, down 2.38% in 24 hours. On Myriad Markets, 82% of the money is betting on Bitcoin pumping to $100K before…