Vietnam maintains macro stability amid global volatility

In the context of complex global developments, Vietnam has maintained a stable fuel supply, with prices below the regional average, though challenges remain to be addressed, including energy security, industrial growth, and domestic demand. Deputy Minister of Industry and Trade Le Manh Hung said: “The coordinated management measures being implemented are helping the economy stay stable amid regional and global volatility.” At the Government’s regular March 2026 meeting and the online Government–localities conference to assess economic and social development in Q1 2026 and to set tasks for Q2 and beyond, on 4 April, Deputy Minister Hung identified several challenges facing the economy, from energy security to industrial growth and domestic demand; nevertheless, the synchronized policy measures are helping Vietnam’s economy stay stable amid global volatility. 4 major challenges and 3 key solution groups follow. The first challenge is energy security, as electricity demand rises faster than expected. Balancing domestic energy sources is increasingly difficult, especially as external factors remain volatile. The energy system currently faces not only higher demand but also a less flexible supply structure. This requires management to be “one step ahead,” to avoid being caught off guard by unfavorable scenarios. Second, industrial growth shows signs of slowing. After a strong start to the year, in March industrial production fell slightly compared with January and February. This is a warning sign to monitor closely, because the industrial sector remains the main growth engine. Third, domestic demand has softened slightly. Total retail sales of goods and services rose by only about 9 percent. This indicates households and firms remain cautious in their spending. An additional note is that although the domestic economy continues to run a trade surplus, the main reason is price effects rather than volume. “A trade surplus does not fully reflect the economy’s strength if there is no corresponding growth in quantity,” Hung emphasized. In response to these challenges, the Ministry of Industry and Trade proposed three major groups of solutions to stabilize and strengthen growth: first, ensure energy security. In the long term, Vietnam aims to reduce the share of net energy imports from 44 percent in 2025 to 30 percent by 2030. This is a crucial step toward increasing self-reliance and reducing external dependence. Alongside that, the power system will be operated more flexibly to guarantee adequate supply for the economy, while monitoring oil and fuel supply is tightened, with a national energy reserve system built and energy conservation promoted. The second group focuses on restructuring the industrial chain and supply chains. The goal is to raise domestic content to 40–45 percent in key sectors such as textiles, footwear, and chemicals. According to the minister, strengthening self-reliance will not only reduce external dependencies but also lay the foundation for sustainable growth. Firms are encouraged to invest in technology and develop strategic products aligned with new trends. The third group is domestic demand stimulus and export market optimization. Fiscal and monetary policies will be coordinated to boost consumption while increasing export value rather than relying solely on volume. The ministry also said it will continue monitoring international trade investigations and push negotiations to sign new agreements to broaden markets. … Pressure from the Middle East and the energy import puzzle. “One of the biggest current difficulties comes from the complex developments in the Middle East — the region that supplies a large portion of Vietnam’s energy,” Hung said. The authorities have drafted two response scenarios with the priority of ensuring energy security and controlling price impacts on the macroeconomy. To date, the scenarios have unfolded as forecast, helping the domestic economy avoid major shocks to supply and prices. To cope with fluctuations, the government has introduced five groups of measures: 1) perfect the policy framework with timely decrees; 2) increase domestic supply; refineries operate at full capacity; two ethanol plants in Dong Nai and Dung Quat operate at full capacity, increasing self-reliance by about 14%; also production of oil and gas increased by over 11%, and processing facilities like Phu My condensate plant have recovered; 3) manage prices via a flexible mechanism tied to the market while avoiding shocks; use a price ladder with stabilization fund to reduce impacts on people and businesses; 4) strictly control the distribution system; the minimum 20-day stock requirement is strictly enforced, preventing hoarding and speculation; to date there have been no widespread closures of gas stations; 5) increase reserves. The Deputy Minister emphasized that Vietnam maintains relative stability amid global fluctuations: while many regional economies face energy crises, Vietnam has remained relatively stable. Vietnam not only ensures supply but also maintains prices about $1.3 per liter below the world average, lower than neighboring countries. By the end of March, total fuel supply remained stable; authorities forecast good control of the situation. Despite these positive results, authorities warn that the economy faces challenges: heavy reliance on imported energy, domestic demand not yet fully recovered, and unpredictable external volatility that could affect growth in the time ahead. Therefore, implementing the integrated set of solutions—from energy security to industrial restructuring to domestic demand stimulation—will be decisive in maintaining macroeconomic stability. “In difficult times, timely management and close coordination among ministries have helped the economy stay stable. However, we cannot be complacent about the challenges ahead,” Hung stressed.