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Bitcoin has entered another post-FOMC period, and a recurring pattern highlighted by crypto analyst and commentator Ardi is again coming into focus. Ardi’s analysis suggests Bitcoin has sold off in the week following eight of the last nine FOMC meetings, with an average seven-day decline of about 11%.
The Federal Reserve concluded its April 28–29 meeting on Wednesday, keeping interest rates unchanged in a target range of 3.50% to 3.75%. The decision was widely expected, with CME FedWatch pricing a 99% probability of a hold in the days leading up to the announcement.
Ardi published his findings on X alongside a Bitcoin daily chart covering May 2025 to late April 2026. His observation is that Bitcoin experienced a sharp selloff in the week after eight of the last nine FOMC decisions.
The main exception was May 2025, when BTC had already fallen roughly 24% from its all-time high before that meeting began. For the other meetings, Ardi’s chart indicates that Bitcoin declined after the decision regardless of whether the Fed cut rates, held them, or issued hawkish commentary.
Beyond direction, the analysis points to magnitude: Bitcoin dropped in eight of the last nine post-FOMC periods, averaging about an 11% decline over the following week.
Applied to this week’s setup, Bitcoin was trading around $76,000 to $79,000 after a 21% rally from early-month lows near $65,000. If the historical average holds, an 11% drop would put the price near $70,000 within the next week.
The Fed said economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace, while also citing elevated inflation, partly linked to higher global energy prices. The analysis notes that Bitcoin remains sensitive to liquidity expectations: a clear path to rate cuts would typically support risk appetite, weaken the dollar, and improve sentiment across the crypto market, while a more cautious Fed stance would likely do the opposite.
On one hand, Bitcoin had already recovered strongly from its recent lows and had support from a better April trend. On the other hand, the post-FOMC timing places Bitcoin in a historically risky window that, based on Ardi’s data, could see it return toward the $70,000 area in the coming days.
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