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Bitcoin has broken out of a sideways trading range that lasted for weeks between roughly $65,000 and $75,000. The price has moved into the $77,500–$78,000 zone, shifting the market from consolidation into what appears to be an early trend phase. In under two weeks, BTC is up nearly 10%.
Upside conviction in prediction markets has increased. According to The Kobeissi Letter, Bitcoin has about a 61–62% probability of reaching $90,000 in 2026, while the chance of hitting $100,000 is near 42–44%.
Downside probabilities remain limited but not absent:
Kalshi data is broadly consistent with this structure, showing about a 40% chance of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by the end of 2026, with only a small probability in the near term.
The rally is also being supported by improving macro conditions. Easing geopolitical tension—particularly an extended Iran ceasefire—has improved global risk sentiment. Equities have stabilized, and crypto is benefiting from a rotation back into risk assets.
Other crypto markets are also recovering: Ethereum is moving back near $2,400, while XRP and other altcoins are following more slowly.
Bitcoin’s rebound follows a sharp drop from recent highs, but price action remains choppy, with no clear breakout confirmed yet. The market is hovering near the $80,000 resistance area as sentiment improves gradually.
While $90,000 and $100,000 remain longer-term possibilities in prediction markets, they are not strongly priced for the near term, and traders appear divided on whether those levels are likely soon. The market is described as bullish again, but not euphoric—conditions that often precede stronger trend phases.
Key levels to monitor include $73,000 support, alongside potential catalysts such as Fed rate cuts and ETF inflows, which could help fuel further upside.
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