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Bitcoin has reclaimed the $78,000 level, revisiting a price zone it last traded on April 17 and again on April 22, after previously moving within a range on February 3.
The rebound has boosted bullish sentiment and renewed expectations of a potential push toward $80,000. However, underlying on-chain data suggests the rally may not yet have the structural support typically associated with the start of sustained bull cycles.
Historical on-chain behavior, particularly the relationship between Bitcoin short-term holders (STH) and long-term holders (LTH), continues to point to caution.
According to Alphractal, the realized price of STH remains above that of LTH. In prior market cycles, a confirmed bull run only emerged after the STH realized price fell below the LTH level. That shift has been associated with stronger long-term accumulation and reduced short-term selling pressure.
While the same pattern has appeared across multiple cycles, it has not formed in the current market structure. The ongoing gap between the two metrics suggests bearish conditions may still be present.
“This bear market may last a bit longer. At least another 5–6 months is what I believe.”
Market analyst Joao Pedro said the market may require several more weeks before a clearer transition out of the bear phase occurs. He added that the recent move could represent a lower high, leaving room for another leg downward.
Although a confirmed bullish crossover has not appeared, some indicators suggest conditions for recovery may be developing.
The LTH-STH spent output profit ratio (SOPR) has been trending downward toward the neutral threshold around 1.0, with current levels near 1.07. Historically, this zone has reflected a cooling phase in which profit-taking subsides and selling pressure weakens.
In past cycles, a move below 1.0 has marked local bottoms and preceded stronger upward momentum. For now, the market remains in a transitional state—stability is emerging, but further downside is still possible.
On-chain fundamentals are also diverging from price action, adding to concerns about the rally’s durability.
Network activity has declined as Bitcoin’s price rises, suggesting the move may be driven more by speculative demand than organic growth. Lower transaction activity and reduced user engagement can indicate weaker underlying support for continued price expansion.
CryptoQuant data shows active addresses have fallen from around 663,000 on April 17 to roughly 620,000 over the past 24 hours. On a broader scale, activity has dropped from approximately 865,000 in February, reinforcing the downtrend in network participation.
This divergence between price and on-chain demand increases the risk that Bitcoin is trading above its fundamental value, raising the likelihood of a correction before a more sustainable uptrend can take hold.
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