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Bitcoin has not seen widespread holder losses, according to AMBCrypto, with the share of long-term holders sitting on unrealized losses reported to be lower than at previous cycle bottoms. That dynamic has tempered expectations that the market had already found a durable bottom after Bitcoin fell to around $60,000 in February.
Over the past three weeks, however, Bitcoin’s ability to hold the $65,000 area and push above $70,000 has helped rebuild confidence among speculators. The increase in April Open Interest (OI) pointed to more aggressive positioning in derivatives as Bitcoin moved back above $75,000.
The higher Open Interest suggests that price moves may be supported by liquidity-seeking behavior, where increased leverage often accompanies speculative confidence. That setup can also raise the likelihood of volatility. Bitcoin has already experienced periods of elevated liquidations as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East intensified.
In April, there were three days when BTC short liquidations exceeded $200 million. By comparison, last month there was only one such day—March 4. Mid-January included two consecutive days (January 13 and 14) with cumulative short liquidations for Bitcoin totaling $440 million.
The pattern of short liquidations in April was linked to crowd disbelief and also coincided with price strength. Earlier, late January and early February saw a sharper selloff as selling pressure increased, and the subsequent liquidation activity was described as part of the mechanism that helped push prices higher.
While the rally has gained momentum, the article notes it may face difficulty sustaining itself. As Bitcoin trades near and above local highs, incentives for holders to take profits and exit the market tend to rise.
Crypto analyst Darkfost reported that BTC has traded in a $64,000 to $75,000 range since the final week of February. The analyst also cited exchange-linked deposit activity: 106,000 BTC flowed into deposit addresses linked to Binance, while 130,000 BTC flowed into OKX-linked deposit addresses.
Such inflows are typically interpreted as a sign of growing sell pressure, particularly if investors appear exhausted by earlier losses and consolidation. The article characterizes the market as being in a difficult spot, with some participants expecting the rally to continue, while others remain concerned about another deep correction under ongoing bear-market conditions.
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