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Bitcoin’s price outlook turned more aggressively bullish early Friday after perpetual futures funding rates fell to their most negative level since 2023, according to CoinDesk. ZeroStack CEO Daniel Reis-Faria said the market’s heavily short positioning could be forced to unwind, setting up a potential move toward $125,000 within 30 to 60 days.
In Asian morning trading on Friday, BTC was near $74,700, up 3.5% on the week but down 0.4% on the day. The move came as a 10-day global equity rally paused ahead of the April 22 Iran ceasefire expiry.
Funding rates are periodic payments between long and short holders in perpetual futures contracts, intended to keep contract prices aligned with spot. When funding turns negative, shorts pay longs, a condition that typically appears when speculative positioning is tilted heavily against price.
Glassnode data cited by CoinDesk showed the seven-day moving average funding rate at approximately -0.005%, a level last seen at the FTX crash bottom in late 2022.
Reis-Faria said such deeply negative funding indicates the market is heavily short. If Bitcoin continues higher, he argued, some of those positions could be liquidated, potentially accelerating the move. He pointed to buy pressure from large corporate accumulators as a likely driver of forced liquidations across the short base.
The article said prior episodes of similar funding extremes have coincided with local price floors, including March 2020, mid-2021, the FTX collapse in late 2022, the yen carry trade unwind in August 2024, and the Liberation Day selloff in April 2025. For traders watching the April 22 ceasefire deadline as a timing catalyst, the historical pattern is presented as supportive of a near-term bullish setup.
On-chain data adds a structural counterpoint: many active bitcoin holders are currently underwater versus their acquisition cost. The article said that if a squeeze-driven rally pushes toward holders’ cost bases, it could trigger notable sell pressure from participants who bought between $75,000 and $95,000 during 2025’s peak accumulation period—often described as a “wall of worried holders.”
It said a move to $125,000 would likely require absorbing that supply sequentially, moving through each cost-basis cluster without capitulating. While oversold signals in on-chain and technical data are cited as supporting the bullish case, the distribution of underwater holders is described as complicating a clean path from short squeeze to new highs without a strong macro catalyst.
The article highlighted three events that could resolve the current setup:
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