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Bitcoin’s recent rebound toward the $75,000–$77,000 range is reversing an earlier drawdown, and the move is beginning to change holder positioning. As the price recovers, coins purchased at lower prices return to profit, pushing Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) to around 0.29—its highest level since late January.
With NUPL rising, more holders move into profit, which shifts behavior across large cohorts. This change is reflected in whale activity: the Exchange Whale Ratio has moved to 0.7 from 0.4.
As whale deposits increase, they add sell-side supply at higher prices. That supply can slow upward momentum even while Bitcoin’s broader positioning remains strong. If buying stays firm, the trend can continue; if it weakens, the market may move into distribution and slow down.
As the recovery pushed more holders into profit, previously idle coins began moving again, driving a sharp rise in active supply. Activity climbed to about 134,000 addresses, breaking above both the 7-day and 14-day averages. This suggests holders are reacting to favorable pricing conditions and shifting from holding to capital rotation.
As profits become available, a large share of activity is directed toward exchanges. More than 64% of activity—about 86,000 addresses—flowed to OKX and Binance. The pattern indicates intent to realize gains rather than accumulate.
When this supply reaches the market, it can add sell-side pressure. That pressure may cap upside momentum and increase the likelihood of a short-term correction if demand does not absorb the added supply.
Bitcoin’s recovery is lifting profitability, but rising whale distribution alongside a surge in active supply points to increasing sell pressure. Whether momentum holds depends on demand’s ability to absorb that supply; weakening bids could shift market structure toward consolidation or a short-term correction.
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