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US-based spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) attracted nearly $1 billion in net inflows last week, while the Polymarket contract for Bitcoin reaching $80,000 in April is trading at 32.5% YES, up from 24% a week ago.
The inflow trend points to strong institutional demand for Bitcoin, which can help establish a “demand floor” as the US-Iran ceasefire holds. However, geopolitical uncertainty remains a factor.
On the April 15 market, the contract is at 100% YES, indicating traders are confident Bitcoin will remain within the $78,000 to $80,000 range.
The June 30 all-time high market is at 3.1% YES, suggesting traders are skeptical about a new all-time high in the near term. Sustained ETF inflows run counter to that skepticism, and if institutional buying continues at the same pace, the odds of a new high could rise.
For the $80K-by-April contract, a YES share is priced at 42¢. If Bitcoin hits $80,000, the share pays $1, implying a 2.38x return. The outcome depends on continued ETF inflows and the US-Iran ceasefire remaining in place.
The next weekly ETF flow report and any changes to the US-Iran ceasefire are the two main catalysts. A spike in net inflows or a breakdown in the ceasefire could cause these contracts to move sharply.
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