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Bitcoin rose 2.66% to around $75,800 on Monday after Strategy disclosed a $2.54 billion purchase, its third-largest ever, equivalent to about 2.5 months of new BTC supply. However, several indicators suggest the rally may not hold.
Strategy funded most of its latest purchase of 34,164 BTC through its preferred stock, Stretch (STRC), which generated more than $2.17 billion via at-the-market share sales between April 13 and April 19. That accounted for roughly 86% of the total amount spent, while sales of its Class A common stock, MSTR, added about $366 million.
STRC is designed to raise cash for Bitcoin when the stock trades at or above $100. Per River data cited in the article, in 2026 STRC enabled purchases of 77,000 BTC—about ten times more than all ETFs combined.
Despite the scale of the purchase, STRC has been trading below its $100 par value since April 15, which could limit Strategy’s ability to keep raising cash for additional Bitcoin purchases this week.
The article notes that in prior instances, pauses in Strategy’s Bitcoin purchases coincided with BTC price slumps. It adds that, on average, Bitcoin’s price fell by roughly 30% when STRC traded below its $100 par value. A 30% decline from current levels would place Bitcoin around $53,000.
US President Donald Trump said it was “highly unlikely” he would extend the two-week truce if no agreement is reached before it expires on Wednesday. The article also states that any signs of an extended Middle East conflict may weigh on Bitcoin’s price.
Bitcoin’s chart structure is described as a classic flag consolidation pattern, with price drifting toward the lower boundary. This raises the risk of a pullback toward the $67,000–$69,000 region in April if support breaks.
At the same time, downside may be limited because the 20-day (green) and 50-day (red) EMAs are continuing to act as dynamic support levels. Holding above these averages would suggest underlying demand and increase the odds of a rebound.
If Bitcoin instead breaks above the flag’s upper trend line, the bearish setup would be invalidated. In that scenario, the article says BTC could target a recovery toward the 200-day EMA (blue), currently near $82,750. It also notes that breaking resistance near $78,000 is a key priority for bulls.
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