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Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin declined by 0.9% after a trading week with little to no price action. While the market’s next direction remains uncertain, a recent on-chain analysis highlights investor activity that could influence longer-term price trends.
In a post on CryptoQuant’s QuickTake, on-chain analyst GugaOnChain pointed to a significant capital rotation in the Bitcoin market. The key metric cited is Bitcoin: Global Network Accumulation vs. Distribution by All Cohorts (30D), which compares whether different wallet-size groups are buying or selling Bitcoin over the past 30 days.
The analyst said mega-whales (wallets holding more than 10,000 BTC) have distributed -25.51K BTC during the period. However, the released supply was reportedly absorbed quickly by smart money sharks (investors holding 100–1,000 BTC), who acquired 37.92K BTC over the same timeframe.
GugaOnChain added that, together with +9.57K BTC absorbed by the 1K–10K BTC cohort, the data suggests an effect consistent with institutional price shielding.
Additional indicators were cited to support the view that selling pressure remains contained as market structure strengthens. The Exchange Whale Ratio—measuring the share of large transactions flowing into exchanges—currently stands at 61.89%. However, Binance data showed zero Bitcoin inflows over 24 hours from the 100–10,000 BTC cohort, indicating large holders were not preparing to sell.
In derivatives markets, Open Interest rose by about 10.43%, reaching approximately $25.98 billion, a sign of increased participation and positioning.
On the supply side, Bitcoin reserves held on exchanges have declined by nearly 1% over the past month. The analyst interpreted this as a retraction of approximately 2.66 million BTC, consistent with investors moving assets out of exchanges—behavior often associated with longer-term holding.
When this exchange outflow is combined with neutral miner positioning (MPI at -0.50) and a positive Coinbase Premium Gap around 23.84 (reflecting steady US buying interest), the analysis suggests that accumulation is continuing, though not aggressively.
The analyst concluded that if the pattern persists, the accumulated supply could be sufficient to absorb existing sell pressure and help sponsor the next Bitcoin rally.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $77,353. CoinMarketCap data shows the cryptocurrency is down 1.33% over the last 24 hours.
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