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Arthur Hayes, the outspoken co-founder and former CEO of BitMEX, delivered a bullish take on the crypto market outlook at Bitcoin Vegas 2026 on Monday.
Hayes sees room for a strong Bitcoin rally to $125,000 by the end of 2026, driven by macroeconomic catalysts that he said could renew bullish momentum.
A key pillar of Hayes’ thesis centers on growing liquidity in the U.S. financial system. He highlighted the Enhanced Supplemental Leverage Ratio, which took effect on April 1, as a regulatory change that allows major banks such as JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup to hold lower capital reserves against their assets. Hayes argued this could unlock additional lending capacity and boost overall market liquidity.
He further suggested that, after accounting for standard banking multipliers, the resulting credit expansion could approach $4 trillion. Hayes said this potential liquidity wave could more than offset an earlier contraction he attributed to AI-related job displacement, which he described as a hidden form of credit deflation.
Hayes argued that artificial intelligence has become the new “subprime” cycle, displacing workers and weighing on tech sector revenues. He pointed to market behavior following Bitcoin’s October 2025 peak as part of this broader macro backdrop.
While tech-heavy indices like the Nasdaq Composite remained relatively stable, Hayes said Bitcoin fell sharply—by about 50%. He attributed the divergence to mounting pressure on software and SaaS firms as AI tools disrupt traditional revenue models.
Despite that weakness, Hayes said a projected $4 trillion wave of credit liquidity could ultimately offset the drag and act as a tailwind for Bitcoin in the coming months.
Hayes also linked a potential Bitcoin boost to rising defense spending following the escalation of the U.S.–Iran conflict. He cited projected U.S. defense outlays approaching $1.5 trillion as a driver of new liquidity entering the financial system.
In his view, the surge in spending effectively translates into expanded money creation and asset purchases. He said this mix of increased fiscal expansion and monetary issuance tends to create conditions where Bitcoin performs strongly.
Hayes dismissed concerns that tighter monetary policy under incoming Federal Reserve leadership would restrict liquidity. He pointed to incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, arguing that both the Federal Reserve and Treasury will ultimately need to maintain strong demand for U.S. debt.
He noted that U.S. debt has now surpassed $38 trillion.
“We’ve had some chop. We’ve had a war. Now it’s time to break out. That’s why I believe Bitcoin is going higher. I think my end-of-year target is around $125,000.”
Bitcoin was recently trading at $76,051 after the $80,000 level was rejected last week.
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