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BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF, IBIT, added $81 million, while its spot Ethereum ETF, ETHA, brought in $30.51 million. In prediction markets, the probability of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by December 31, 2026 rose to 38% YES, up from 34% a week earlier.
The $100,000 Bitcoin market moved to 38% YES in tandem with the BlackRock inflows. The $150,000 Bitcoin market is at 11% YES. For Ethereum, the market for staying above $1,800 on April 13 is at 100% YES.
For the April $4,000 Ethereum contract, no specific odds were available, but traders were described as reading ETHA inflows as directionally positive for higher Ethereum price thresholds.
The inflows come after a period in which geopolitical tensions had slowed institutional buying. The $100,000 Bitcoin market trades $2,274 in actual USDC daily, and it takes $8,640 to move the price by 5 percentage points, suggesting the market has enough depth to resist thin-volume swings.
Ethereum prediction markets were described as showing no active trading volume at the time, but still tracking the same inflow data.
BlackRock’s position as the largest asset manager gives its ETF flows outsized influence on how prediction market traders price Bitcoin and Ethereum targets. In the Bitcoin $100,000 contract, a YES share at 38¢ would pay $1 if it resolves, implying a 2.63x return.
The report also noted that new ETF approvals or a sustained run of inflows above $50 million per day would likely push the $100,000 Bitcoin market higher.
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