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Bitcoin has rallied to its highest price since Feb. 4, 2026, but onchain data from Cryptoquant suggests the move is now running into a resistance level that has previously halted bear-market rebounds.
Cryptoquant points to the Traders’ Onchain Realized Price at $76,800 as a key resistance. This metric reflects the average cost basis for short-term traders. In past bear markets, holders trading near breakeven have used this level as an exit point, limiting upside. Cryptoquant says a similar dynamic occurred during the January 2026 rally, when prices reversed after testing the same type of resistance.
Cryptoquant researchers also note that the prior decline to $60,000 placed bitcoin in short-term undervalued territory. The recovery has been supported by a temporary de-escalation in U.S.-Iran tensions and weakness in the U.S. dollar. The lower band of the Traders’ Realized Price sits near $67,600, which now functions as the primary support level if the current resistance holds.
On April 15, 2026, hourly bitcoin exchange inflows reached approximately 11,000 BTC as prices tested the $76,000 area, according to Cryptoquant. The reading is the highest since late December 2025 and above a 9,000 BTC inflow spike recorded in March 2026. Cryptoquant said that March spike coincided with 63% large-deposit concentration and preceded a short-term price correction.
Cryptoquant data shows the mean bitcoin exchange deposit climbed to 2.25 BTC, the highest daily reading since July 2024. Large individual transfers to Binance exceeding 1,000 BTC drove the increase. Cryptoquant said a retail-driven inflow spike would typically pull the average deposit size down, not up, indicating the activity is concentrated among large holders.
The share of large deposits as a percentage of total exchange inflows rose quickly—from below 10% to above 40% within days, Cryptoquant reported. The speed of the shift suggests urgency among large holders to position for distribution as price tests the resistance zone. Historically, Cryptoquant said readings above 40% large-deposit share have aligned with elevated near-term selling pressure.
Cryptoquant researchers drew a comparison with January 2026, when the average deposit size peaked near 2 BTC ahead of bitcoin’s drop from $100,000 to $60,000. The current average deposit size of 2.25 BTC exceeds that prior peak, suggesting a more concentrated distribution effort at current price levels.
Cryptoquant data shows daily realized profits are near $500 million, below the $1 billion threshold it identifies as a significant profit realization event in bear markets. Cryptoquant said bitcoin holders who accumulated between $65,000 and $76,000 are now sitting on unrealized gains, which can set up conditions for accelerated profit-taking if price holds or climbs higher.
In previous bear market rallies, Cryptoquant reported that realized profit spikes above $1 billion have coincided with or slightly preceded local price tops. The current reading suggests profit-taking has not yet reached that stage.
If bitcoin moves toward or past the $76,800 Traders’ Realized Price, Cryptoquant researchers said daily realized profits could move meaningfully toward the $1 billion mark, which would likely increase selling pressure and the probability of a rally stall or reversal at current levels.
Over the last 24 hours, bitcoin has shown significant volatility, repeatedly testing the $75,000 resistance level before settling near $74,200. Cryptoquant’s onchain indicators—rising exchange inflows, higher average deposit sizes, and growing large-holder concentration at a historically resistant price level—form a consistent set of signals for traders focused on near-term direction.
Cryptoquant said its data does not rule out further upside. However, as of mid-April 2026, the onchain picture reflects large holders actively positioning near resistance, while the cost basis of short-term traders sits just above current prices.
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