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On-chain data from Binance, OKX, and Coinbase shows how the Hormuz conflict reshaped Bitcoin capital flows, shifting activity from exchange distribution to cold custody accumulation over a 57-day window around the outbreak of hostilities.
From January 2 to February 27, Bitcoin exchange netflow across the three platforms reflected steady distribution. In that pre-conflict period, the exchanges recorded a combined positive balance of 27,741 BTC.
The data indicated that selling pressure was building across both retail and institutional sides of the market ahead of the geopolitical shock.
On-chain analyst GugaOnChain described the pre-conflict period as “pure distribution,” noting that global retail dominated deposits across all three exchanges during the window. The combined positive balance suggested exchange liquidity was building steadily before the conflict began, with retail-heavy flows present across platforms.
After the Hormuz conflict started on February 28, exchange flows reversed sharply. Over the next 57 days, Binance, OKX, and Coinbase recorded a combined outflow of 82,197 BTC.
This represented a complete regime change from the distribution phase that preceded it. Despite short-term panic, the macro balance pointed to a broad flight to cold custody.
The reversal also suggested that American participants shifted assets away from exchanges and into cold storage.
GugaOnChain’s April 25 update indicated the trend remained in place. Binance posted a minor retail return with a net inflow of 158 BTC, while OKX added 122 BTC.
Coinbase, however, maintained an outflow posture, recording a net outflow of -277 BTC for the day. The figures reinforced that institutional accumulation continued even as retail flows stabilized.
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