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Former Ripple CTO David Schwartz pushed back against renewed claims that XRP could reach $10,000, arguing that the market itself would quickly reflect such an extreme outcome if it were genuinely plausible to well-capitalized investors.
The discussion followed an X user’s request for Schwartz to comment on theories using a crypto adaptation of Chris Burniske’s Price = PQ / (V × S) model, which some XRP supporters have cited to argue for a possible $10,000 XRP.
Schwartz responded with a direct market argument: if sophisticated investors believed there was even a small chance of XRP hitting $10,000 within 10 years, they would have already bid the price far higher.
“If there were a few very rich, very rational people who really believed that there was a 1% chance that XRP could hit $10K in 10 years, they’d bid XRP up to at least $20 today,” Schwartz wrote. “Why aren’t they? Conspiracy?”
Schwartz’s point was not limited to the size of the $10,000 figure. He argued that if the expected value of such a target were credible, rational investors would not wait passively. Even a small probability of a very large future price, in his view, would be enough to justify aggressive buying at levels well above what the market has sustained.
His response also challenged a recurring assumption behind ultra-bullish XRP forecasts: that the market has failed to price in future institutional utility, settlement demand, or a latent strategy connected to Ripple.
The debate also returned to another familiar claim in XRP circles—that Ripple could use its own products and treasury-related flows, including Ripple Prime, to drive XRP dramatically higher.
One user asked why Ripple would not “use their own stuff” through those channels and suggested it could push XRP above $100. Schwartz rejected the idea that Ripple still has an unused mechanism capable of massively repricing XRP.
“Maybe there was one time when you could semi-plausibly argue that Ripple had some easy way to shoot up the price of XRP massively for good but was just waiting for the right time to maximize something or other,” he wrote. “But boy, it’s hard to argue that today. For one thing, circumstances have changed so much that it’s hard to imagine we’ve held onto this magic switch for so long and it’s still just waiting to go.”
Schwartz added that Ripple has already explained its strategy, even if it does not disclose every internal detail. “We’ve explained what we’re doing, why we’re doing it, and what we hope to achieve,” he wrote. “While we aren’t transparent about everything, we’re not hiding some grand conspiracy. At least not as far as I know.”
In the exchange, another user argued that wealthy investors may prioritize wealth preservation over high-risk bets. Schwartz countered that this misunderstands how large pools of capital often behave.
“The way rich people preserve wealth is by taking bigger risks than other people can stand to take,” he replied.
Another claim raised was that very wealthy buyers could accumulate XRP over the counter rather than on centralized exchanges, potentially limiting visible price impact. Schwartz conceded that this could be true initially, but argued it would not change the broader conclusion.
“At first,” he wrote. “But they wouldn’t stop until they had moved the price or run out of money.”
At press time, XRP traded at $1.3749.
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